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NFL Conference Finals Betting Primer

We are officially rounding the corner on the NFL season and the finish line is in sight. We’ve traveled a long way to get here and I hope it’s been a profitable season for all of you who’ve been a regular user of the stats and trends in the betting primer.

Speaking of traveling, you know who’s spent a lot of time on the road lately? The Jacksonville Jaguars. Over the past few weeks, they’ve traveled to San Francisco, Tennessee and Pittsburgh. By the time the Jags land in New England, they will have traveled around 9,387 miles. During that span, the Patriots haven’t played in one road game as their last two regular-season games were played at home, which was of course followed by their bye, then they hosted Tennessee last week. So, to recap, 9,387 miles traveled to ZERO miles traveled. 

You can draw your own conclusion from that, but mine is that it puts Jacksonville at a serious disadvantage. That’s a lot of time over the last five weeks, sleeping in disgusting hotel beds that countless strangers have performed shameful acts in. For what it’s worth, the Eagles have also been nesting at home for a while, as they haven’t played a road game since December 17.

Whether you agree with my theory on sleeping in filthy, soiled beds or not, I’m sure we can all agree on one common goal: To destroy the bookie so badly this Sunday that he has no choice but to trade his mattress in for a cardboard box to sleep in.

The finish line is almost here, so let’s get after it more than ever for the conference finals! Give me a follow on Twitter, and as always, KEEP CHASING THAT PAPER!

Jaguars vs Patriots
  • The Patriots are 7-0 SU with an average point differential of +18.43 when leading after the 1st quarter. The Jaguars are 10-0 SU with an average point differential of +18.4 when leading after the 1st quarter.
  • The Patriots have allowed just 14 points per game over their last 13 games. Over their last six home games, they’ve allowed just 12.16 points per game.
  • The Jaguars have allowed 32 points per game over their last four road games.
  • Tom Brady at home this season: 21 TDs and two INTs.
  • The Patriots are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last 6 home games with an average win margin of 17.3 points.
  • The Patriots are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last 7 home playoff games with an average win margin of 18.3 points.
  • The Patriots are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games vs the Jaguars with an average win margin of 17.43.
  • The Patriots are 32-11-3 ATS in their last 46 home games.
  • The Jaguars are 0-7 SU lifetime in New England. Six of the seven losses were by 11 points or more.
  • The total has gone OVER in three of the Jaguars’ last four games on the road. The average combined score in those games was 60.5.
  • As a favorite of 9 points or more at home, New England is on a tear that’s seen them go 11-2 ATS.
  • The Patriots are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games.
  • The Patriots are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games in the conference championships.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Patriots’ last seven conference championship games. The average score in those games was 43.14.
Vikings vs Eagles
  • The Eagles are 8-0 SU with an average point differential of +13.75 when scoring first. The Vikings are 7-0 SU with an average point differential of +14 when scoring first.
  • The Vikings are 12-1 SU in their last 13 games. The 12 wins came by an average of 11.58 points.
  • The Vikings are 2-13 SU and 3-12 ATS in their last 15 January road games.
  • Home underdogs are 20-13-2 ATS in the NFL playoffs since 2000.
  • At home this season, the Eagles are allowing a league-low 13 points per game.
  • Over their last three games, these teams are combining to allow just 20 points per game.
  • Eight straight Eagles’ home playoff games have gone UNDER.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Vikings’ last nine games on the road in January.
  • Case Keenum has an 88.7 QB rating while outdoors compared to 105.1 in indoor games.
  • The Vikings are 3-9 SU in their last 12 games against the Eagles.
  • The Vikings are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games against the Eagles.
  • The total has gone UNDER in three of the Vikings’ last four games against the Eagles.
  • The Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games in the playoffs as an underdog.
  • The Eagles are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games at home.
  • The Vikings are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games.

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