A new influx of talented players enters the NFL ranks soon, as the NFL draft takes place April 27-29. There are plenty of questions come this time of the offseason and this year is no different.
Will the Browns keep it simple and take Myles Garrett? Will a mediocre crop of quarterbacks find themselves falling down draft boards? Just how many DBs are we going to see get selected in the first round? (My personal answers are yes, yes and a lot.)
With so many questions come a whole lot of prop bets. No matter what you think is going to happen on draft night, you can certainly find yourself an opportunity to make money. However, the list of props is massive and daunting but that’s why I’m here. I’m going to give you a few prop bets that I’m going to be betting and I think are as close to a sure thing as you can get.
Patrick Mahomes: Drafted UNDER 24.5 (-280)
I think quarterbacks are going to slide a little in the draft with many of the teams in the top 10 committed to a signal-caller already. However, that doesn’t mean that we will see a repeat of the 2013 draft when one QB went in the first round – and that was the always not-good EJ Manuel.
If NFL teams overvalue one aspect in their QB draft picks, it is arm strength. Patrick Mahomes easily has the biggest arm in this draft and plenty of mobility in the pocket. There are issues with his footwork and regarding his scheme in college but those are easily coachable.
The reason this number is set at 24.5 is because the Houston Texans select at No. 25. Nobody expects Mahomes to make it past the Texans, but his name is trending upward and his skill set will certainly intrigue some teams.
TJ Watt: Selected In Round 1 (-165)
Many view TJ Watt as a fringe first-round prospect and he is. But he has versatility and NFL bloodlines that will make teams fall in love with him. He is ideally an OLB in a 3-4 scheme, but could also play DE in 4-3 sets. His ability to both rush the passer and seal off the edge in the run game makes him a valuable commodity.
This isn’t the sexiest of picks, but Watt is the type of player who can become an anchor on a defense for the next decade. Plus, there are at least three teams in the bottom third of the draft order that could use a player like Watt on their defense.
Christian McCaffrey: Drafted OVER 8.5 (-120)
Running backs are seeing a bit of a renaissance in the NFL with Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott proving that rookie runners are worth the early picks. However, those two guys were workhorse backs who offered rare traits coming out of college. That is not Christian McCaffrey.
I think the Stanford product will end up being one of the most versatile weapons in the NFL if he ends up in the right situation. However, he is clearly behind Leonard Fournette and likely Dalvin Cook in terms of backs in the draft. Fournette is a lock to go in the top 10, but Cook and McCaffrey are mysteries. The running back position is still volatile and teams are not going to be too excited about spending early first-round picks on the position.
The last time two running backs went within the top 15 picks was 2010 when we saw CJ Spiller and Ryan Mathews go ninth and 12th respectively. Not too sure if teams are anxious to recreate that scenario.