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NFL Free Pick from Linebacker: Bears vs Rams

NFL Free Pick Linebacker Bears vs Rams

Chicago Bears vs Los Angeles Rams (LAR -7, O/U 40.5)

Sunday Night Football features a matchup of top-two draft picks at the quarterback position as Jared Goff and the Rams will host Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears. Both quarterbacks have underwhelmed this season based on the draft capital spent on them, but will have a chance to outduel each other under the bright lights in LA. Sean McVay will look to put together a better offensive game plan for Goff after putting up just 12 points on the road in a loss to the Steelers. They’re greeted by another tough defense in this one, as the Bears have allowed the fourth-fewest points per game in the NFL (17.4).

The Linebacker’s model projects the Rams will win this matchup, but not nearly by the seven points they are currently laying at home. Our simulations project a 22.1 - 19.1 victory for the Rams, giving us a nice edge on Chicago against the spread. Our model suggests a $63 wager on CHI +7 for an average $100 bettor.

The Linebacker’s model is 83-42 ATS (66.4%) for +20.22 units and 76-58 (56.7%) on OVER/UNDERs for +24.38 units through 10 weeks of NFL, producing a profit of $4,460. Head over to thelinebacker.com to sign up for a free trial and get access to EVERY NFL Week 11 prediction.

Why will Chicago cover the spread?

  • The Rams offensive line is in shambles heading into a matchup against Khalil Mack and the Bears. They lost starting right tackle Rob Havenstein in Week 10, as well as starting center Brian Allen. Neither was having a great season, but their replacements likely won’t fare much better. Austin Corbett is one of them, acquired from the Browns for a fifth-round pick after being selected by Cleveland in the second round in 2018. LA’s line will undoubtedly struggle to contain Mack and company, as the Bears rank 10th in the NFL with 2.8 sacks per game.
  • Jared Goff has struggled mightily in his fourth NFL season. His 7.4 yards per attempt mark is a full yard behind his 8.4 average last season, and he’s coughed up 15 turnovers compared to 13 total touchdowns (11 passing, 2 rushing). His adjusted QBR of 39.7 ranks 28th among 32 quarterbacks (ESPN).
  • Chicago has struggled offensively this season, producing only 18.0 points per game (27th) and 4.4 yards per play (30th). The Bears haven’t compounded that issue by turning the football over, however, as their nine giveaways are fifth-fewest in the NFL. In an expected low-scoring affair between two subpar offenses and two above-average defenses, the turnover battle could prove to be the deciding factor in this one. LA’s 16 turnovers are seventh-most in the league.

How to bet the total in Bears vs Rams:

The Linebacker projects a final score of 22.1 - 19.1 in favor of the Rams. With 41.2 projected points and an OVER/UNDER of 40.5, we have a very slight edge on the OVER in this one. Our model recommends a $15 wager on OVER 40.5 for an average $100 bettor.

Need-to-know stats for Bears vs Rams:

  • 7 catches, 77.3 yards, 0.49 TDs - Cooper Kupp put up a goose egg in Pittsburgh last Sunday, failing to catch a pass for the second time in his 32-game career. Despite not accruing any meaningful stats in Week 10, Kupp still leads the Rams in catches, targets and receiving yards, and has been the best touchdown scorer among the bunch as well. His five touchdown catches are three more than the next-closest Ram in Gerald Everett, while no other pass catcher has more than one on the season. We project him to have a bounce-back outing against the Bears in this one, but to still fall short of his season average of 88 receiving yards per game.
  • 23/35, 203.7 yards, 1.17 TDs, 0.68 INTs - Mitchell Trubisky has had a terrible season at the helm of Chicago’s offense. His 5.8 yards per attempt is the lowest mark in the NFL, and he had only produced five passing touchdowns in six full games before his three-touchdown performance against Detroit in Week 10. Trubisky entered the league as a dual-threat quarterback, but has amassed just 54 yards rushing in seven games this season. We project he’ll finish a modest 23/35 for slightly north of 200 yards. His one positive this season is that he’s rarely turned over the ball, and he averaged only 0.68 INTs per game in our simulations.
  • 13 rushes, 48.2 yards, 0.6 TDs; 2 catches, 16.4 yards, 0.05 TDs - After being a dominant fantasy player over the last couple of seasons, Todd Gurley has seen his workload regress in a big way. He’s seen one game of 20-plus touches in 2019 after seeing 18 such games in 2017 and 2018, and has become a touchdown-dependent fantasy asset at this point. We’re projecting him for only 64.6 total yards, but he does have a solid chance of reaching the end zone on the ground. His average of 0.6 rushing TDs in our simulations is the highest touchdown projection among all Rams skill position players.
    NFL Free Pick from Linebacker for Bears vs Rams November 17