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NFL Free Pick from Linebacker: Bills vs Jets

NFL Free Pick from Linebacker: Bills vs Jets

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets (Jets -3, O/U 41)

A matchup of second-year quarterbacks takes place in the Meadowlands this Sunday as Josh Allen and the Bills square off with Sam Darnold and the Jets. New York opens up as a 3-point favorite in its first game under new head coach Adam Gase, now featuring a backfield headlined by Le’Veon Bell. The Linebacker’s model prefers Buffalo in this matchup, however. Our model predicts a final score of 22.5 - 18.3 in favor of the Bills, giving us a solid wager on Buffalo +3. We recommend a bet of $81 on Buffalo +3 for an average $100 bettor.

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Why will Buffalo cover the spread?

  • The Bills finished 2018 with the second-best defense in terms of total yards allowed (294.1/game) and the top-rated passing defense (179.2 yds/game). They return a majority of starters on defense, while also adding ninth overall pick Ed Oliver to the defensive front.
  • The Jets will start the season without TE Chris Herndon, who finished second on the team in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns in 2018.
  • The Jets defense struggled to contain Josh Allen in his lone start against them last season, allowing him to run for 101 yards and a touchdown on nine attempts. New defensive coordinator Gregg Williams runs primarily man defense, allowing for plenty of scrambling opportunities for Allen. The Williams-led Browns defense allowed the third-most rushing attempts and fifth-most rushing yards to QBs in 2018.
  • New York should struggle to stop the run against a Bills team that finished fourth in rush attempts and eighth in rushing yards in 2018. The Jets allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game in 2018, and Williams’ defense in Cleveland allowed the fifth-most per game.
  • Josh Allen struggled with accuracy in his rookie season, but enters with a much-improved wide receiver group thanks to the additions of John Brown and Cole Beasley.

Bills @ Jets: How to bet the total

The Linebacker projects a final score of 22.5 - 18.3 in favor of the Bills. With 40.8 projected points and an OVER/UNDER of 41, we have no suggested wager on the total in this game.

Need-to-know stats for Bills @ Jets

  • 241.1 total yards - This is our current projection for the Jets offense in Week 1, as we expect the Bills defense to smother Sam Darnold and company in MetLife Stadium. New York is without Chris Herndon, and will play its first game under new HC Adam Gase, whose offense in Miami finished 25th or worse in total yards all three seasons he was at the helm.
  • 7 rushes, 40.9 yards - Josh Allen projects for seven rushing attempts after averaging 9.0 attempts over his last six games in 2018. He averaged 8.8 yards per attempt on those 54 rushes, including a 9-101-1 performance against this Jets team in their Week 14 matchup a year ago. Our projection may even be a little modest entering Week 1.
  • 13 rushes, 55.1 yards, 0.4 TDs, 10 rushes, 46.7 yards, 0.1 TDs - The first rushing line belongs to rookie Devin Singletary, whom we expect to take over the lead role with LeSean McCoy now out of the picture. He projects for a modest 4.24 yards per carry, but averaged 0.4 TDs per game in our simulations. Frank Gore is the owner of the second line projection here, as the 36-year-old veteran back should still see his fair share of carries in this offense. Gore projects a little better in YPC, with a projected 4.67 mark per rush.
  • 3 catches, 32.1 yards, 0.32 TDs - Robby Anderson projects to be the Jets’ leading receiver in Week 1. We have three other Jets projected for three catches, but Anderson leads the team in yardage and touchdown projections. Overall, we suggest staying away from the Jets’ passing attack in DFS or season-long fantasy, as they project for just 151.8 total yards passing.