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NFL Free Pick from Linebacker: Colts vs Texans

Linebacker free pick colts texans

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (HOU -1, O/U 48.5)

Wild Card Weekend begins in Houston on Saturday, where the division champion Texans will host the Indianapolis Colts. Deshaun Watson and the Texans open as 1-point favorites in his first NFL playoff start. The Colts come in having won nine of their last 10, and are looking for their first playoff victory since 2014. The Linebacker projects a final score of 29.3 - 21.3 in favor of Houston, so we have a solid play on the Texans in this one. The Linebacker suggests a wager of $86 on HOU -1 for a $100 average bettor.

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Why will Houston cover the spread?

  • Deshaun Watson should be able to move the ball with relative ease against a Colts defense allowing the second-highest completion percentage to opposing QBs (70.85%).
  • The Colts likely won’t be able to get anything going in the rushing game. Houston ranks first in the league with 3.4 yards per carry allowed on defense, and the Colts project for just 84.6 rushing yards on 26 carries (3.25 ypc).
  • Houston ranked fourth in scoring defense this season, allowing opponents to average just 19.8 points per game.
  • DeAndre Hopkins is the best player on the field for either team. He accounted for 115 catches and zero drops this season, and posted a combined 14 catches for 205 yards and two touchdowns in their two games against the Colts.
  • Houston owns the second-best turnover differential in the NFL at +13. The Texans have turned it over just 16 times this season, which is the third-lowest mark in the league. Winning the turnover battle will be key to gain extra possessions in this one.

How to bet the total in Colts @ Texans:

The Linebacker projects a final score of 29.3 - 21.3 in favor of the Texans. With 50.6 projected points and an OVER/UNDER of 48.5, we have a slight preference on the OVER in this matchup. The Linebacker suggests a $52 wager on OVER 48.5 for a $100 average bettor.

Need-to-know stats for Colts @ Texans:

  • 7 catches, 81.6 yards, 0.65 TDs - DeAndre Hopkins projects to be the leading receiver on either team by a wide margin. His seven projected catches are two more than T.Y. Hilton, and no one else projects to surpass even 70 yards receiving. Hopkins finished the season on an absolute tear, averaging 10.7 catches for 140.3 yards while scoring two touchdowns in his last three games.
  • 25-34, 278.2 yards, 1.62 TDs
    3 rushes, 13.3 yards - Deshaun Watson projects to have an efficient game against this Colts defense. We predict he’ll complete 73.5 percent of his passes on Saturday for just shy of 280 yards. Watson has a solid chance to post multiple touchdown passes, as he averaged 1.62 passing TDs in our simulations.
  • 25-38, 271.1 yards, 1.33 TDs - Andrew Luck will have to carry this Colts offense, as Houston ranks third in rushing yards allowed per game but 28th in passing yards allowed per game. We project he’ll throw 38 times, falling short of 300 yards. Luck should manage at least one passing touchdown, if not more, as he averaged 1.33 TDs in our simulations.
  • 5 catches, 67.0 yards, 0.3 TDs - T.Y. Hilton paces all Indy pass catchers, projecting to catch five balls for 67 yards. Hilton has destroyed the Texans this season, catching 13 passes for 314 yards in their two meetings this year. Houston will certainly need a different game plan to slow down Luck’s No. 1 weapon.