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NFL Free Pick from Linebacker: Cowboys vs Redskins

NFL Free Pick Linebacker Cowboys vs Redskins

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (DAL -5.5, O/U 46.5)

Dak Prescott and his perfect passer rating will head to Washington, D.C., to battle Case Keenum and the Redskins on Sunday. Washington jumped out to a surprising 17-0 lead in Week 1 over the Eagles, only to blow the lead and ultimately lose 32-27. Prescott and the Cowboys rolled to a Week 1 victory over the Giants, and will enter their second straight divisional matchup as 5.5-point favorites. The Linebacker’s model predicts the score will be 28.5 - 18.3 in favor of the Cowboys, giving us a solid edge in this matchup. We suggest a wager of $61 on DAL -5.5 for an average $100 bettor.

The Linebacker’s model went 8-3 ATS (+2.54 units) and 8-7 (+1.60 units) on O/Us in NFL Week 1, profiting a grand total of $414. The Linebacker subscribers profited $2,390 on the NFL last season (avg. $100 bettor). Head over to thelinebacker.com to sign up for a free trial, and get access to EVERY NFL Week 2 and NCAAF Week 3 game.

Why will Dallas cover the spread?

  • Washington should struggle to stop Dallas’ offense, which racked up 494 yards of total offense in Week 1. Dak Prescott is loaded with the best weaponry of his career now that Michael Gallup looks matured in his sophomore season, and he’s now had a full offseason to jell with Amari Cooper. Ezekiel Elliott should also have no limitations after sitting out the fourth quarter in last week’s blowout of the Giants.
  • Kellen Moore calling plays is a huge upgrade to the offense. They averaged 8.0 yards per play in Week 1 after finishing 22nd last year with 5.4 yards per play, incorporating more modern concepts (play-action, RPOs, etc.) to their play-calling and letting Dak Prescott utilize his wealth of weapons.
  • Case Keenum won’t have as much success against the Dallas secondary as he did in Week 1 against Philly. The Eagles finished last season allowing the third-most passing yards per game (269.2) while Dallas finished 13th with 234.7 yards per game allowed. The Cowboys secondary returns all its starters from 2018. We project Keenum to finish 19/31 for just 190.2 yards and 1.1 TDs.
  • Two of Washington’s three touchdowns in Week 1 came on passing plays of 48 and 61 yards. Dallas finished tied for seventh last year by allowing just seven passing plays of over 40 yards. Its zone defense scheme is designed to take away the big play, which Washington exploited against the Eagles.

Cowboys @ Redskins: How to bet the total

The Linebacker projects a final score of 28.5 - 18.3 in favor of the Cowboys. With 46.8 projected points and an OVER/UNDER of 46.5, we have no suggested wager on the total in this game.

Need-to-know stats for Cowboys @ Redskins

  • 27-38, 291.6 yards, 1.70 TDs - Dak Prescott should have another quality performance in Week 2. Our model projects him to finish just shy of 300 yards with a 71 percent completion rate. We also have Dak projected for four rushing attempts, totaling 13.3 yards.
  • 6 receptions, 72.2 yards, 0.58 TDs - After finishing second in receiving yards in Week 1 to Michael Gallup, Amari Cooper projects to be the leading receiver for Dallas in Week 2. We have Amari projected to catch six passes for over 70 yards, and he also averaged 0.58 TDs per game in our simulations. Dak to Amari could be a viable stack in DFS based on these median projections.
  • 15 rushes, 62.2 yards, 0.4 TDs - After being a healthy scratch in the season opener, Adrian Peterson should get plenty of runs in Week 2 now that Derrius Guice is out of the picture. Peterson projects to average 4.15 yards per rush while leading the Washington backfield with 0.4 TDs in our simulations.
  • 5 receptions, 41.6 yards, 0.18 TDs - The other Washington back projects to lead the team in catches and receiving yards against Dallas. Chris Thompson hauled in a team-high seven balls on 10 targets against the Eagles, and should handle nearly all the passing down work in Week 2. While he’s third on the team in touchdown projection (Quinn 0.24, Richardson 0.21), he still has plenty of upside in a game where Washington should be playing from behind.