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NFL Free Pick from Linebacker: Eagles vs Bills

NFL Free Pick Linebacker Eagles vs Bills

Philadelphia Eagles @ Buffalo Bills (BUF -2, O/U 43.5)

The 5-1 Buffalo Bills host the reeling Philadelphia Eagles, who have lost their last two games by a combined 45 points. Buffalo escaped a slow start against the Dolphins in Week 7 to secure a victory, and is led by a defense that ranks third in yards and points allowed per game. Philly’s defense has struggled, allowing 30 points per game outside of its matchup with the Luke Falk-led Jets.

Buffalo is currently listed as a 2-point favorite over Doug Pederson’s Eagles. Our model believes the Bills will take care of business against Philadelphia by a score of 24.2 - 19.1, giving us a solid wager on the Bills. We suggest a $50 wager on BUF -2 for an average $100 bettor.

The Linebacker’s model is 61-31 ATS (66.3%) for +15.10 units and 56-44 (56.0%) on OVER/UNDERs for +17.74 units through seven weeks of NFL, producing a profit of $3,284.

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Why will Buffalo cover the spread?

  • The Bills defense should be able to stifle Philadelphia’s offense in this matchup. Buffalo is ranked third in yards per play (4.7) and points allowed per game (15.2). Philly’s offense has struggled this season, producing just 5.3 yards per play (24th) and 24.4 points per game (14th).
  • Josh Allen is in line for a big game against a struggling Eagles secondary. Philly has allowed 7.5 yards per pass attempt (24th), 270.6 passing yards per game (27th) and two passing touchdowns per game (26th).
  • Carson Wentz has averaged just 211.5 passing yards over his last four games, and is now facing a Buffalo pass defense allowing 201.3 yards per game (fourth-best). Philly’s receivers are struggling to gain separation, and this doesn’t seem like a matchup where they’ll change that trend. The Bills have allowed 883 receiving yards to opposing receivers this season (sixth-fewest) and only two touchdowns to the position (second-fewest).
  • The only facet the Eagles have excelled at offensively is their third-down success rate. Their 48.35 percent conversion rate on third down ranks fifth-best in the league. Buffalo is likely to shut that down as well, as its 34.12 percent conversion rate allowed on defense is ninth-best in the NFL.

How to bet the total in Eagles @ Bills:

The Linebacker projects a final score of 24.2 - 19.1 in favor of the Bills. With 43.3 projected points and an OVER/UNDER of 43.5, we have no suggested wager on the total in this game.

Need-to-know stats for Eagles @ Bills:

  • 20/33, 176.3 yards, 1.12 TDs, 0.73 INTs - Carson Wentz is in line for a stinker of a game against this tough Bills defense. As mentioned above, Wentz has thrown for 211.5 passing yards per game over his last four, and we expect he’ll fall short of that mark this Sunday. The former No. 2 pick has a solid chance to throw an interception for the third consecutive game, as he averaged 0.73 INTs per game in our simulations.
  • 4 catches, 49.8 yards, 0.41 TDs - John Brown leads the Bills in every meaningful receiving category through six games. His 473 receiving yards are nearly 200 more than second-place Cole Beasley, and his eight receptions of 20-plus yards are five more than the next closest Bill. We project he’ll be the leading receiver for Buffalo in this matchup, and he has a chance to feast against a secondary allowing the most yards and touchdowns to opposing receivers.
  • 4 catches, 34.7 yards, 0.22 TDs - On the other side of the ball, Zach Ertz leads the Eagles in targets, catches and receiving yards this season. The Bills have been stout against nearly every offensive position, but specifically against tight ends. Their 17 catches allowed to tight ends are second-fewest in the league, while the 192 yards resulting from those catches are the third-fewest. They’re tied with the Patriots and Vikings as the only teams to not allow a touchdown to the tight end position. If Ertz is on your fantasy team, you might want to look elsewhere this week.