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NFL Free Pick from Linebacker: Giants vs Bears

NFL Free Pick Linebacker Giants vs Bears

New York Giants vs Chicago Bears (CHI -6, O/U 40.5)

It’s likely to be an underwhelming matchup on the field when the Bears host the Giants this Sunday, but there’s still betting value to be had in this game. According to Matt Nagy, Mitchell Trubisky should start after being removed on Chicago’s final offensive drive on Sunday night due to a hip pointer, and he’ll square off with rookie QB Daniel Jones. Jones has had an up-and-down season thus far but has been an upgrade from Eli Manning thanks to his athleticism and playmaking ability. He’ll look to end the Giants’ six-game losing streak against a Bears team that has lost five of six and seems like an organization in disarray.

Chicago is currently listed as a 6-point favorite over the visiting Giants, and while our model projects the Bears will win outright, we’re favoring Pat Shurmur’s squad against the spread. Our model projects a final score of 21.8 - 18.5 in favor of the Bears, and suggests a wager of $42 on NYG +6 for an average $100 bettor.

The Linebacker’s model is 91-46 ATS (66.4%) for +22.37 units and 82-65 (55.7%) on OVER/UNDERs for +23.32 units through 11 weeks of NFL, producing a profit of $4,569. Head over to thelinebacker.com to sign up for a free trial and get access to EVERY NFL Week 12 prediction.

Why will New York cover the spread?

  • The Giants have hemorrhaged yards to opposing passing attacks this season but are facing the worst passing attack in the NFL this Sunday. Chicago has averaged 5.3 yards per pass attempt on the season, last in the NFL, and is still throwing the ball 62.15 percent of the time (10th-most). The Bears’ vertical passing game is essentially non-existent, with the fewest completions of 20-plus yards (21) and 40-plus yards (one). New York has allowed 12 pass plays of 40-plus yards, the most in the NFL, and has yielded 41 completions of 20-plus yards (sixth-most). Essentially, the Bears are unlikely to exploit their opponent’s biggest weakness thanks to their subpar quarterback play.
  • Chicago’s offensive line has struggled against the pass rush this season, allowing a sack on 7.98 percent of their dropbacks. The Giants’ defensive strength has been rushing the passer, as they’re 11th in the NFL with a 7.12 percent sack rate against opposing QBs.
  • The Bears pass defense isn’t as elite as publicly perceived. They’re allowing opponents to complete 66.76 percent of their passes (25th) and their pass rush is mediocre with just a 6.48 percent sack rate (23rd). They’ve also allowed the second-most completions to opposing running backs, which is a dangerous formula against Saquon Barkley.
  • Sterling Shepard should return for the Giants after missing several weeks with a concussion. He’s been extremely productive when paired with Daniel Jones, averaging 6.3 catches for 75.0 yards on 9.0 targets in their three games together. Shepard has also contributed 42 yards rushing on four carries in their three games together, adding another element to New York’s offensive attack.

How to bet the total in Giants vs Bears:

The Linebacker projects a final score of 21.8 - 18.5 in favor of the Bears. With 40.3 projected points and an OVER/UNDER of 40.5, we have no suggested wager on the total in this one.

Need-to-know stats for Giants vs Bears:

  • 15 rushes, 55.9 yards, 0.5 TDs, 5 catches, 38.4 yards, 0.13 TDs - Saquon Barkley has taken a step back in his sophomore season after winning offensive rookie of the year, but he should have a solid outing on Sunday against the Bears. We’re projecting the Penn State product for 20 touches and nearly 100 total yards. While his 3.73 yards per carry projection is underwhelming, he has a solid chance to reach the end zone against a Chicago defense that has allowed the third-most rushing TDs (10) to opposing running backs. Barkley should also receive plenty of work in the passing game, as Chicago’s 66 receptions allowed to opposing backs are the second-most in the NFL.
  • 25/38, 226.1 yards, 1.19 TDs, 0.89 INTs - Daniel Jones has played well since settling into his starting role, averaging 265.6 yards with a 65 percent completion rate and 10 touchdowns compared to two interceptions over his last four games. Our model projects he’ll fall short of those averages in this matchup, but we expect he’ll safely clear 200 yards and throw at least one touchdown. He did average 0.89 interceptions per game in our simulations, so it’s likely he’ll cough up a turnover on Sunday as well.
  • 6 catches, 68.5 yards, 0.40 TDs - I mentioned above how terrible New York’s pass defense has been this season, and Allen Robinson is the most likely Bear to take advantage of that weakness. Robinson has still posted great numbers this year despite Chicago’s ineptitude at the quarterback position, having caught nearly 30 more balls and 300 more yards than the next-closest wide receiver. His 8.6 targets per game are easily a team high, and he should find plenty of success against a weak Giants secondary.