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NFL Free Pick From Linebacker: Packers vs Vikings

Packers vs Vikings Pick from Linebacker

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings (MIN -5.5, O/U 45.5)

Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings will play host to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in a Monday night matchup ripe with playoff implications. Green Bay currently holds a one-game lead over the 10-4 Vikings and toppled Mike Zimmer’s squad 21-16 in their first matchup of the season. The Vikings will attempt to keep their record perfect at home, entering this matchup with a 6-0 mark at U.S. Bank Stadium. They’re currently favored by 5.5 points over their longtime division rivals, but we’re more interested in betting the total in this contest.

The current OVER/UNDER in Monday night’s matchup is 45.5 points. Our model projects a final score of 26.0 - 21.5 (47.5 total) in favor of the Vikings, giving us a solid edge on the OVER in this matchup. Therefore, we’re suggesting a wager of $55 on OVER 45.5 for an average $100 bettor.

The Linebacker’s model is 120-66 ATS (64.5%) for +26.99 units and 106-86 (55.2%) on OVER/UNDERs for +21.57 units through 15 weeks of NFL action, producing a profit of $4,856. Head over to thelinebacker.com to sign up for a free trial and get access to EVERY NFL Week 16 prediction.

Why will the total go OVER in Packers vs Vikings?

  • Minnesota’s offense should torch Green Bay in the passing game, helping lead to quick scores. The Vikings rank second in the NFL with 8.0 yards per pass attempt and lead the NFL with 9.2 yards per attempt at home. The Packers have struggled to slow down enemy passing games, surrendering 7.2 yards per attempt (23rd) and 11.8 yards per completion (28th).
  • Aaron Rodgers should drop back frequently against a Minnesota defense that has seen the fifth-highest passing play percentage (62.57%) against them this season. Green Bay’s passing attack has been solid thus far, ranking 16th in the NFL with 6.7 yards per attempt. The Vikings have been good but not great against the pass, surrendering 6.4 yards per attempt (11th) and a 65.27 percent completion rate to opposing quarterbacks (25th).
  • Both teams have produced chunk plays at a high rate in the passing game, and have been susceptible to big plays on defense. They’re both in the top half of the league in passing gains of 20-plus yards and rate out even better when looking at completions of 40 or more yards. Green Bay is fourth in the NFL with 12 completions of 40-plus yards and Minnesota is right behind with 11 such plays. The Packers have allowed the seventh-most completions of 20-plus yards (53) and the second-most of 40-plus yards (14). Minnesota ranks 16th in both categories, having surrendered 46 completions of 20 or more yards and seven of 40 or more.
  • The Vikings and Packers have been two of the NFL’s best teams at converting red-zone trips into touchdowns. Green Bay ranks second with 68.89 percent of its trips ending in six, and Minnesota is fourth with a 66.00 percent TD conversion rate.

How to bet the spread in Green Bay vs Minnesota:

The current spread in this matchup favors Minnesota by 5.5 points. Our projected score is 26.0 - 21.5 in favor of the Vikings, giving us a small edge on the Packers in this matchup. Our model recommends a $10 wager on Green Bay +5.5 for an average $100 bettor.