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NFL Free Pick from Linebacker: Patriots vs Jets

NFL Free Pick Linebacker Patriots vs Jets

New England Patriots @ New York Jets (NYJ +10, O/U 42.5)

Tom Brady and the Patriots will have 10 days to prepare for the New York Jets ahead of Monday Night Football, after disposing of the New York football Giants last Thursday night. New England has coasted to a 6-0 record, with only one game resulting in a single-digit victory. The Jets will need to keep it within single digits to cover the spread, with New England currently listed as a 10-point favorite on the road. Our model projects the final score will be 27.3 - 14.6 in favor of the Patriots, giving us an edge on Bill Belichick’s squad to cover. We suggest a $42 wager on NE -10 for an average $100 bettor.

The Linebacker’s model is 55-24 ATS (69.6%) for +16.32 units and 45-41 (52.3%) on OVER/UNDERs for +12.37 units through six weeks of NFL, producing a profit of $2,869.

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Why will New England cover the spread?

  • The Patriots should continue their defensive dominance against the 1-4 Jets. They’ve allowed a league-low 237.4 total yards per game and 8.0 points per game, while also leading the league in turnovers. New England has 14 interceptions on the season, with no other NFL team in double digits.
  • Bill Belichick’s defense has generated plenty of pressure this season, currently leading the league in sack percentage. They’ve sacked opposing QBs on 10.64 percent of their drop-backs, while the Jets rank 31st in sack percentage allowed, with their QB getting taken down on 14.12 percent of his drop-backs.
  • It’s hard to imagine the Jets having any consistent success on offense thanks to their terrible offensive line. Their 3.1 yards per rush attempt is dead last in the NFL, while the Patriots have held opponents to a 12th-best 4.2 yards per carry. The mismatch in the trenches will make life incredibly hard on Sam Darnold.
  • On the other side of the ball, Tom Brady will have ample time to dissect the Jets defense from a clean pocket. New York’s 3.63 percent sack rate against opposing QBs ranks 30th in the NFL, while the Golden Boy has been sacked on just 4.51 percent of his drop-backs (seventh-best).
  • The New York pass defense has struggled this season, allowing 7.0 yards per attempt (20th) and 262.0 passing yards per game (21st). New England’s passing game has been much more effective than its rushing attack. The Patriots have averaged 7.3 yards per pass attempt (10th) and just 3.5 yards per rush attempt (28th). With a near non-existent pass rush and struggling secondary, the Jets have little to no shot of stopping Brady.

How to bet the total in Patriots @ Jets:

The Linebacker projects a final score of 27.3 - 14.6 in favor of the Patriots. With 41.9 projected points and an OVER/UNDER of 42.5, we have a slight edge on the UNDER in this one. Our model suggests a $13 wager on UNDER 42.5 for an average $100 bettor.

Need-to-know stats for Patriots @ Jets:

  • 207.6 total yards - The Patriots have allowed a league-best 237.4 yards per game this season, and we’re projecting the Jets will come in UNDER that number. Even with Sam Darnold back, it doesn’t fix New York’s issues on the offensive line. New England should dominate the trenches on defense and give Darnold hardly any room to operate.
  • 7 catches, 90 yards, 0.68 TDs - Julian Edelman projects to lead Patriots receivers in catches and yards by a wide margin. There are question marks surrounding the availability of Josh Gordon and Phillip Dorsett, so Edelman’s projections are inflated based on their presumed absence at this point. Regardless, Edelman has been Tom Brady’s favorite target this season with 38 receptions on 56 targets for 449 yards. We project he’ll fall just shy of 100 yards in this contest, but he has a solid chance to reach the end zone, averaging 0.68 TDs in our simulations.
  • 14 carries, 51.5 yards, 0.4 TDs, 5 catches, 39.8 yards, 0.15 TDs - Le’Veon Bell has been the featured offensive player in his first year for the Jets, and we project he’ll be heavily involved once again in Week 7. Bell projects to gain 91.3 of the Jets’ 207.6 total yards, and has the best chance of any skill position player to reach the end zone. His efficiency will continue to be lacking behind a poor offensive line, but he should get close to 20 touches and will likely be the only fantasy-relevant player for New York against the Pats.