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The Linebacker NFL Free Pick: Ravens vs Chiefs 2018

Linebacker Ravens Chiefs

Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -7, O/U 53)

The league’s top-scoring offense will play host to the top-scoring defense this Sunday, as the Kansas City Chiefs welcome the Baltimore Ravens into Arrowhead. Kansas City is a 7-point favorite over the Ravens, who will have Lamar Jackson under center for his third career start. The Linebacker predicts a final score of 28.1 - 25.1 in favor of the Chiefs, giving us a solid play on Baltimore. The Linebacker suggests a $78 wager on Baltimore +7 for a $100 average bettor.

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Why will Baltimore cover the spread?

  • Baltimore’s defense has been elite in every category this season. It ranks first in total yards allowed per game (281.7), second in passing yards allowed per game (194.4) and third in rushing yards allowed per game (87.3).
  • Baltimore’s 4.6 yards allowed per play is the best in the league.
  • Baltimore ranks third in third-down defense, holding opponents to a 34.16 percent conversion rate.
  • Patrick Mahomes has the most completions of 20-plus yards (63) and third-most of 40-plus yards (12). Baltimore’s defense has surrendered the fifth-fewest gains of 20-plus yards (31) and is second with only two pass plays of 40-plus yards allowed all season.
  • Since Lamar Jackson took over as QB, Baltimore leads the league in rush-play percentage (65.6%), rushing yards per game (238.7) and time of possession (37:20).
  • Kansas City ranks 31st with 5.1 yards allowed per rush.

How to bet the total in Ravens @ Chiefs:

The Linebacker projects a final score of 28.1 - 25.1 in favor of the Chiefs. With 53.2 projected points and an OVER/UNDER of 53, we have no suggestion for betting the total in this game.

Need-to-know stats for Ravens @ Chiefs:

  • 21-35, 283 yards, 1.75 TDs - Patrick Mahomes projects to fall under 300 yards passing for just the fourth time all season. His touchdown total should also be held in check, as he averaged 1.75 passing touchdowns per game in our simulations. This should be one of Mahomes’ worst statistical games of the season.
  • 19 carries, 85.8 yards, 0.57 TDs - Gus Edwards has become the primary running back with Lamar Jackson under center. We project the rookie will touch the ball around 20 times and average 5.0 yards per carry. He’s scored just one touchdown on 67 carries this season, but he has a solid chance to reach pay dirt, averaging 0.57 rushing TDs per game in our simulations.
  • 4 catches, 44.6 yards, 0.32 TDs - Although the Ravens will employ a run-heavy scheme, Michael Crabtree projects to be the top receiver for Baltimore. The Linebacker predicts he’ll lead all Baltimore pass catchers with four and rack up a team-high 45 yards.