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NFL Free Pick from Linebacker: Ravens vs Chiefs

NFL Free Pick Linebacker Ravens vs Chiefs

Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -7, O/U 53.5)

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens head to Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday to face reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Both teams have started the season 2-0 behind their exceptional quarterback play, and enter the game first (BAL) and third (KC) in total yards per game. The Chiefs are currently listed as 7-point favorites at home, but The Linebacker’s model sees things differently. We project the Ravens will win 27.4 - 24.9, giving us a very strong play against the spread in this one. Our model suggests a $117 play on BAL +7 for an average $100 bettor.

The Linebacker’s model is 14-8 ATS (+2.56 units) and 16-13 (+4.00 units) on O/Us through two weeks of the NFL, producing a profit of $656. The Linebacker subscribers profited $2,390 on the NFL last season (avg. $100 bettor). Head over to thelinebacker.com to sign up for a free trial and get access to EVERY NFL Week 3 and NCAAF Week 4 game.

Why will Baltimore cover the spread?

  • The Ravens have matched Kansas City’s offensive output this season, as they’re tied for second in the NFL with 7.5 yards per play through two weeks.
  • Baltimore’s defense has an edge on the Kansas City unit, however, allowing 5.4 yards per play (14th) and 13.5 points per game (4th). Kansas City is allowing 6.7 yards per play (28th) and 18.0 points per game (T-9th).
  • The Ravens secondary has allowed just 55.56 percent of passes to be completed this season, fourth-best in the NFL. Obviously, the Chiefs passing attack is their main strength, as Patrick Mahomes has a 71.4 percent completion rate (5th-best) and has thrown for 821 yards in two games.
  • Kansas City has allowed a league-high 6.0 yards per rush attempt this season, after finishing 30th in 2018. Baltimore leads the NFL with 225 rushing yards per game, and has been doing so efficiently. The Ravens’ 5.7 yards per rush attempt ranks fifth in the NFL.
  • Baltimore will limit Patrick Mahomes’ opportunities, as it leads the NFL in time of possession. The Ravens have faced soft competition in the first two weeks, but Baltimore also led the NFL in time of possession in 2018, holding the ball for over 32 minutes per game.

How to bet the total in Ravens @ Chiefs

The Linebacker projects a final score of 27.4 - 24.9 in favor of the Ravens. With 52.3 projected points and an OVER/UNDER of 53.5, we have a slight edge on the UNDER in this game. Our model suggests a $26 wager on UNDER 53.5 for an average $100 bettor.

Need-to-know stats for Ravens @ Chiefs

  • 39 rushing attempts, 192.0 yards - The Ravens have been one of the run-heaviest teams in the league since Lamar Jackson took over at QB last season. We expect they’ll pound the rock plenty on Sunday, with four different carriers contributing to the 39 total attempts. Kansas City has allowed a league-high 6.0 yards per rush attempt this season, so our projected 4.92 YPA for the Ravens could even be on the low side.
  • 20-35, 244.7 yards, 1.59 TDs - Patrick Mahomes is set up to have a disappointing day compared to the insane standard he’s posted early on in his career. We project him to finish with a 57.1 percent completion rate and to not even reach 250 yards, let alone 300. He still averaged 1.59 TDs per game in our simulations, however, so he has a solid chance to reach multiple touchdown passes.
  • 6 receptions, 78 yards, 0.49 TDs - Sammy Watkins slightly edges out Travis Kelce in our projections to be KC’s leading pass catcher on Sunday. He’s officially the No. 1 wideout with Tyreek Hill on the sidelines, and we project he’ll approach 100 yards in this contest.
  • 3 receptions, 37.7 yards, 0.25 TDs - Mark Andrews has started the season extremely well, catching 16 of 17 targets for 220 yards and two touchdowns. We project he’ll come back to earth a bit in this one, catching just three balls for under 40 yards.