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NFL Free Pick from Linebacker: Seahawks vs Rams

NFL Free Pick from Linebacker: Seahawks vs Rams

Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams (LAR +1, O/U 48)

The NFC West-leading Seahawks head to LA for Sunday Night Football, and will square off with the Rams for the second time this season. Seattle took home the first matchup by the thinnest of margins thanks to a Greg Zuerlein missed field goal as time expired, so it’s no surprise the line in this game is extremely tight. Seattle is currently listed as a 1-point favorite over Sean McVay’s Rams, who have won four of six entering Sunday night’s matchup. The Seahawks need every win possible to stave off the 49ers for the NFC West title, while Los Angeles is on the outside looking in on the playoff picture with its current 7-5 record.

Seattle will look to win its sixth straight game and enters as a slight 1-point favorite over the 2018 NFC Super Bowl representative. Our model predicts a final score of 26.0 - 22.0 in favor of the Seahawks, giving us a solid edge on Pete Carroll’s squad. We recommended a wager of $52 on SEATTLE -1 for an average $100 bettor.

The Linebacker’s model is 105-56 ATS (65.2%) for +24.03 units and 93-74 (55.7%) on OVER/UNDERs for +23.26 units through 13 weeks of NFL, producing a profit of $4,729. Head over to thelinebacker.com to sign up for a free trial, and get access to EVERY NFL Week 14 prediction.

Why Will Seattle Cover the Spread?

  • The Rams have struggled holding opponents to field goals when they reach the red zone. They’ve given up TDs on 64.1 percent of opponents’ drives ending in the red area, which ranks 28th in the NFL. Seattle reaches the red zone at a high clip, averaging 3.9 red-zone trips per game (third-most). Russell Wilson has also converted 63.8 percent of those red-zone trips into touchdowns, which ranks seventh-best in the NFL.
  • Seattle’s defense is no longer the strength of Pete Carroll’s team, allowing 24.4 points per game (23rd) and 5.8 yards per play (24th). They’ve still excelled at forcing turnovers, however, ranking third in the NFL with 2.2 takeaways per game. The Rams offense, and Jared Goff specifically, have struggled with turnovers this season, coughing up 1.7 giveaways per game (23rd).
  • The Seahawks defense also performs well on third downs, holding opponents to a 10th-worst 36.23 percent conversion rate. Conversely, the Rams have struggled converting their third-down opportunities, ranking 19th with a 36.84 percent conversion rate.
  • Russell Wilson has been torching opposing defenses all season. His 8.3 yards per pass attempt ranks sixth-best in the NFL, and his 26 passing touchdowns lead the league. While the Rams have been solid against the pass this season, ranking sixth in yards per attempt allowed (6.2), Wilson handled their secondary with ease in the first matchup. He completed 17 of 23 passes for 268 yards (11.7 ypa) and four touchdowns.

How to bet the total in Seahawks vs Rams

The Linebacker projects a final score of 26.0 - 22.0 in favor of the Seahawks. With 48.0 projected points and an OVER/UNDER of 48, we have no suggested wager on the total in this one.

Need-to-know stats for Seahawks vs Rams

  • 22/34, 239.3 yards, 1.37 TDs, 0.4 INTs - Russell Wilson should put up another efficient outing against the division foe Rams. We project he’ll finish with a 64.7 percent completion rate and a decent 7.04 yards per attempt. While he may not throw for four touchdowns again in this matchup, we project he’ll throw at least one with a solid chance for multiple TDs. We also have Wilson projected to add 20.4 yards rushing on five attempts.
  • 5 catches, 59.8 yards, 0.46 TDs - Despite posting a goose egg in Monday night’s game and just four catches over his last three games, we project Tyler Lockett to lead the Seahawks in receptions and yards this Sunday. The Rams have allowed the eighth-most receptions to opposing wide receivers on the season, so this should be a good spot for Lockett to get right. His 0.46 projected TDs leads the receiving corps and is second to Chris Carson’s 0.6 rushing TD projection for the team lead.
  • 6 catches, 74.7 yards, 0.4 TDs - Cooper Kupp torched the Seahawks for 117 yards on nine catches in their Week 5 showdown, and we project he’ll lead the team in catches and yards once again in this matchup. While Robert Woods is closing in on the team lead for receptions, targets and yards, Kupp has a stranglehold on touchdown receptions. His six trips to the end zone are four more than any other Rams receiver, and his 0.4 TD average in our simulations is the highest on the team outside of Todd Gurley.
  • 14 rushes, 58.7 yards, 0.6 TDs, 2 catches, 17.6 yards, 0.06 TDs - Speaking of Todd Gurley, the Rams lead back has assumed workhorse duties in LA’s recent competitive games. His two games of 20-plus touches on the season have come within the last three weeks, and we project he’ll get close to that mark against the Seahawks. We have him falling short of 100 total yards, but Gurley has a great chance to find the end zone in this matchup. His 0.6 rushing TD projection leads all Rams skill players, after he posted two rushing TDs on 15 attempts in Week 5.