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NFL Free Pick from Linebacker: Titans vs Falcons

NFL Free Pick Linebacker Titans vs Falcons

Tennessee Titans @ Atlanta Falcons (ATL -4, O/U 45.5)

The Titans head to Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday for their third road game in four weeks. The Falcons will welcome them as 4-point favorites, after losing a tough game on the road to the Colts in Week 3. Tennessee is benefiting from a long week after losing to Jacksonville in Week 3’s Thursday night game, and will be focused on keeping Marcus Mariota upright after allowing nine sacks against the Jaguars.

The Linebacker’s model projects this to be a tight game, with the Falcons edging out Tennessee by a score of 22.6 - 22.1. With Atlanta currently listed as a 4-point favorite and our model projecting a near even matchup, we suggest a bet on the Titans against the spread. Our model recommends a $62 wager on TEN +4 for an average $100 bettor.

The Linebacker’s model is 26-11 ATS (70.2%) for +6.60 units and 26-18 (59.1%) on OVER/UNDERs for +11.61 units through three weeks of NFL, producing a profit of $1,821. Head over to thelinebacker.com to sign up for a free trial, and get access to EVERY NFL Week 4 and NCAAF Week 5 prediction.

Why will Tennessee cover the spread?

  • The Titans defense matches up extremely well with the offensive strength of the Falcons. Atlanta is ranked sixth in both passing attempts per game (41.0) and passing yards per game (295.3), while ranking a solid 13th in yards per pass attempt (7.2). Tennessee excels in pass defense, holding teams to a sixth-best 5.9 yards per pass attempt, while intercepting quarterbacks on a third-highest 4.17 percent of pass attempts.
  • Atlanta has been one of the least effective rushing teams to begin the 2019 season, averaging just 18.0 rushing attempts per game (28th) and gaining 4.1 yards per rush attempt (T-18th). Tennessee’s weakness on defense thus far has been stopping the run, surrendering 4.8 yards per carry (24th) through three weeks.
  • The Falcons have struggled to rush the passer this season, ranking 28th with just five total sacks. The Titans’ biggest offensive weakness has been keeping Marcus Mariota upright, having allowed the most sacks on the season thus far.
  • Atlanta’s special teams have struggled, specifically the punting unit. Its 34.9 net yards per punt ranks 31st in the NFL.
  • Tennessee comes in with a huge edge in the turnover battle. The Titans have turned the ball over just once while forcing five from their opponents (+4). Atlanta ranks 30th with seven giveaways, and they’ve turned over their opponent just three times (-4). 

How to bet the total in Titans @ Falcons

The Linebacker projects a final score of 22.6 - 22.1 in favor of the Falcons. With 44.7 projected points and an OVER/UNDER of 45.5, we have a slight edge on the UNDER in this game. Our model suggests a $17 wager on UNDER 45.5 for an average $100 bettor.

Need-to-know stats for Ravens @ Chiefs

  • 25/39 for 252.2 yards, 1.52 TDs, 0.87 INTs - Matt Ryan has shown some severe volatility so far this season. Although he’s averaging nearly 320 yards passing per game with eight TDs, he’s thrown six interceptions through three games. We project he’ll fall shy of 300 yards vs the Titans’ solid pass defense, and he has a good chance to throw another pick, averaging 0.87 INTs per game in our simulations.
  • 17 carries, 78.2 yards, 0.7 TDs - Derrick Henry projects to be the most effective offensive player for the Titans. We’re expecting him to clear 75 yards on the ground, and he has the best chance to reach the end zone of any Titan.  His 0.7 projected TDs leads the team by far, with Delanie Walker the next-closest skill player at 0.26.
  • 4 receptions, 39.7 yards, 0.26 TDs - Speaking of Delanie Walker, the veteran tight end projects to lead the Tennessee offense in receiving. His four catches and nearly 40 yards lead all pass catchers, which is on brand considering he leads the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns on the season. We’re expecting Mariota to spread the ball around, as we have nine Titans projected to catch a pass.
  • 13 carries, 54.4 yards, 0.5 TDs, 2 receptions, 16.8 yards, 0.04 TDs - Devonta Freeman has gotten off to a relatively slow start this season against some tough defenses, and he’ll face another one this week. Our model projects he’ll reach just north of 70 total yards, with only 15 projected touches. He does have a solid shot to reach the end zone on the ground for the first time in 2019, however, with 0.5 projected rushing TDs in our simulations.