Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins (LAC +2.5, O/U 48.5)
Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert will square off in a rookie QB battle this Sunday in Miami.
Herbert enters having torn up his competition through seven starts, averaging 8.0 yards per attempt and over 300 yards passing per game. The Chargers have failed to turn his brilliance into victories, however, with a 1-6 record since Herbert took over, with all six losses coming by a one-score margin.
The fifth overall selection in this year’s NFL draft is already 2-0 in his starts, but Tua sports a modest 6.7 yards per attempt as the starting signal-caller. His Dolphins are currently listed as 2.5-point favorites over the visiting Chargers, but our model projects a different outcome than the sportsbooks.
Our model is predicting a much more favorable outcome for the visiting Chargers, projecting a final score of 27.9-24.1 in favor of Anthony Lynn’s squad. Therefore, we have a rather sizable edge on Los Angeles with the Chargers listed as 2.5-point underdogs. Our model suggests a $117 wager on CHARGERS +2.5 for an average $100 bettor.
Prediction Machine’s NFL model was 129-75 ATS (63.2%) for +26.85 units and 117-98 (54.4%) on O/Us for +21.04 units in the 2019-20 season, producing a total profit of $4,789. Head over to predictionmachine.com/pricing and sign up to receive every NFL prediction.
Why will Los Angeles cover the spread?
How to bet the total in Chargers vs Dolphins:
Prediction Machine’s NFL model projects a final score of 27.9-24.1 in favor of the Chargers. With 52.0 projected points and an OVER/UNDER of 48.5, we have a solid edge on the OVER in this one. Our model suggests a $93 wager on OVER 48.5 for $100 average bettors.