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NFL Free Pick: Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles

Prediction Machine NFL Free Pick: Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (PHI +1, O/U 45.5)

Carson Wentz and the Eagles will attempt to rebound from their Week 1 loss in Washington with a victory over the Rams. The Eagles are expecting Lane Johnson and Miles Sanders to see their first action of 2020 after missing Week 1, while the Rams will travel across the country following their Sunday night victory to face their second NFC East opponent in as many weeks. Malcolm Brown led the charge for Sean McVay’s offense in their victory over the Dallas Cowboys, totaling 110 yards from scrimmage along with two rushing touchdowns.

The Rams will enter Lincoln Financial Field as 1-point favorites over the Eagles, but our model projects things differently. We’re projecting a final score of 24.3-19.7 in favor of Philadelphia, giving us a large edge on the home-dog Eagles. Our model suggests a $96 wager on PHILADELPHIA +1 for an average $100 bettor.

Prediction Machine’s NFL model was 129-75 ATS (63.2%) for +26.85 units and 117-98 (54.4%) on O/Us for +21.04 units in the 2019-20 season, producing a total profit of $4,789. Head over to predictionmachine.com/pricing and sign up to receive every NFL prediction.

Why will Philadelphia cover the spread?

  • Philadelphia’s offensive line was bullied in a Week 1 matchup against Washington, allowing eight sacks and producing just 57 rushing yards. While it naturally can’t get much worse, the outlook against Aaron Donald and the Rams improves drastically with the expected return of right tackle Lane Johnson and running back Miles Sanders.
  • While the Rams defense is anchored by perennial DPOY candidate Donald and shutdown corner Jalen Ramsey, they are poorly equipped to stop Philly’s dual tight end attack featuring Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert. The Rams allowed the second-most yards per reception to opposing tight ends in 2019 and lost their top two tacklers and playmakers up the middle in Cory Littleton and Eric Weddle.
  • Philadelphia’s rushing attack should be much improved in Week 2 thanks to the aforementioned returns of Johnson and Sanders. The Rams allowed 5.0 yards per carry in Week 1, while coughing up 159 total yards and two touchdowns to opposing running backs. We’re expecting a bounce-back week from the Eagles’ rushing attack.

How to bet the total in Rams at Eagles:

Prediction Machine’s NFL model projects a final score of 24.3-19.7 in favor of the Eagles. With 44.0 projected points and an OVER/UNDER of 45.5, we have a slight edge on the UNDER in this one. Our model suggests a $35 wager on UNDER 45.5 for an average $100 bettor.

Need-to-know stats for Rams at Eagles:

  • 6 receptions, 61.0 yards, 0.32 TDs (Ertz), 5 receptions, 51.5 yards, 0.48 TDs (Goedert) - As mentioned above, we’re expecting solid performances from the tight end duo of Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert. The Eagles easily paced the NFL with 66 percent of their plays coming from 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends) in Week 1, with no other team surpassing 40 percent (Sports Info Solutions). That recipe should continue against a Rams team that has struggled to limit tight ends in the passing game. Our model is projecting over 110 combined receiving yards for Ertz and Goedert, with a touchdown likely to come for at least one of them.
  • 76.9 total rushing yards (LAR) - Our model is expecting the ground game to struggle for the Rams at Lincoln Financial Field. Despite the losing effort, Philadelphia held Washington runners to 2.2 yards per carry in Week 1 after finishing seventh-best in that category in 2019. Although the Rams finished Week 1 with 40 rushing attempts (2nd-most), they managed only 3.8 yards per carry. We’re projecting their usage to be more in line with last year’s 25.1 attempts per game, as we have the Rams’ runners projected for a combined 24 rushing attempts in this one.