Everybody is filled with optimism before the start of a new NFL season. Every owner talks up their team, every coach throws out the “we like our group” cliché, and every player is in the best shape of his life.
Then the pads come on and we quickly realize who the contenders and pretenders are, and which teams are going to be the biggest disappointments.
It is usually in the latter scenario, when a team falls well short of expectations, that we have an in-season coach firing.
Online sportsbook Sportsbook has the latest odds on who will be the first NFL coach to be fired and Carolina Panthers coach Matt Rhule leads the way at +300.
Let’s look at the shop’s odds for this prop. To find out the best places to bet on football, head over to our best NFL betting sites.
See Odds Shark’s Best NFL Betting Sites
Who Is Favored To Be The Next NFL Coach To Leave Or Be Fired In 2022?
| Coach | Odds |
|---|---|
| Matt Rhule | +300 |
| Mike McCarthy | +450 |
| Pete Carroll | +600 |
| Frank Reich | +700 |
| Ron Rivera | +800 |
| Kevin Stefanski | +1000 |
| Dan Campbell | +1000 |
| Mike Vrabel | +1200 |
| Kliff Kingsbury | +1200 |
| Robert Saleh | +1400 |
| Arthur Smith | +1400 |
| John Harbaugh | +1600 |
| Mike Tomlin | +1800 |
| Nick Sirianni | +2500 |
| Kyle Shanahan | +3300 |
| Bill Belichick | +5000 |
| Todd Bowles | +5000 |
| Lovie Smith | +5000 |
| Brandon Staley | +6600 |
| Nathaniel Hackett | +6600 |
| Mike McDaniel | +6600 |
| Zac Taylor | +6600 |
| Kevin O’Connell | +6600 |
| Doug Pederson | +6600 |
| Dennis Allen | +6600 |
| Brian Daboll | +6600 |
| Matt Eberflus | +6600 |
| Matt LaFleur | +8000 |
| Sean McDermott | +10000 |
| Josh McDaniels | +10000 |
| Sean McVay | +10000 |
| Andy Reid | +10000 |
Odds as of July 21 at Sportsbook
First NFL Coach To Be Fired: The Favorite
Matt Rhule (+300)
The Panthers have gone 5-11 and 5-12 in Matt Rhule’s two years as head coach and it’s safe to say he’s on the hot seat entering Year 3.
Bringing in a new quarterback sometimes buys a head coach some time, but Rhule and the Panthers have hitched their wagon to the enigmatic Baker Mayfield for this season and it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise if this marriage didn’t work out.
The Panthers don’t have a great roster, are clearly the third-best team in the division at best and their 2022 win total is set at 5.5. Rhule is a good bet in NFL coach to be fired odds even though the odds aren’t all that attractive.
First NFL Coach To Be Fired: Bets To Avoid
Pete Carroll (+600)
Despite being third on the list in first NFL coach to be fired, I wouldn’t count on Carroll going anywhere.
He is the fourth-longest tenured coach in the league and has full control over the roster. And while the Seahawks do have a win total line of just 5.5, it is clear they are rebuilding after trading Russell Wilson and that Carroll is overseeing that.
We don’t think the Seahawks will win many games, but Carroll’s job shouldn’t be in danger.
Frank Reich (+700)
This one is a little confusing for me. The Colts were 9-8 last year in Reich’s fourth season as head coach and only missed the playoffs because of some terrible quarterback play from Carson Wentz.
Wentz is gone now after reportedly causing problems both on and off the field, replaced with the steady hand and personality of Matt Ryan.
The Colts are favorites in AFC South odds and have a projected win total of 9.5; it would be a shocker if Reich was canned midseason.
First NFL Coach To Be Fired: Best Bet
Kliff Kingsbury (+1200)
The team that fires its coach first is always one that has a disappointing start to the season relative to expectations, and if we look at the Cardinals schedule, it’s not hard to imagine a tough first few weeks.
Arizona opens with the Chiefs, Rams, Raiders, Panthers and Eagles in their first five games and it’s easy to see a 1-4 start if things don’t go their way.
On top of that, I’m not sure Kingsbury is the “boy genius” coach that many have made him out to be early in his career. His play-calling has been questionable at times and a roster that has question marks on the offensive line and in the defensive secondary can undermine any team’s aspirations.
The odds here are very attractive at +1200.
