Is Aaron Rodgers really worth 10 points? That's what was revealed across the airwaves this week when it was announced he would be sidelined for at least three weeks with a broken collarbone, and would be replaced by Seneca Wallace.
And because of this the Packers went from being a 10-point favorite at most places for their game on Sunday at home against Philadelphia to a pick'em at 5Dimes.
Whether or not you can decide which the better team is, and if the Packers can succeed without Rodgers, perhaps looking at the total would be a safer choice. Eight of the last nine meetings, dating back to 2000, have stayed under the posted total - including five straight.
After a scare from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Seattle Seahawks head south to face another team from the NFC South, laying -7 points in Atlanta to the Falcons. The Seahawks have lost four in a row to Atlanta, and each of those games played over the posted number. The Falcons are mired in a 1-5 ATS slide against NFC West teams, and conversely the Seahawks are in on a 5-1 ATS run against NFC South teams.
Surprising Carolina heads across the country to take on the 49ers, who are -7 in a potential playoff preview if both keep playing the way they've been the past month. Carolina arrives in the Bay Area on a 13-2 ATS run against the Niners, who are 1-7 ATS all time when hosting the Panthers. Carolina is riding a perfect 6-0 ATS streak as a road underdog into Frisco, but the Niners are on a 6-2 ATS run when laying points at home. Confused what to do yet? Maybe the total is the way to go, as San Francisco is 12-1 to the OVER following a bye week, and the high number is on a 12-2 win streak when these two meet.
Finally, in the AFC West clash between the Broncos and Chargers in San Diego, Denver is -7.5 and comes in rested after a bye week. And make note, the Broncos are on a 10-2 ATS run following their bye week. They're also on a 9-3 spread streak on the AFC West road dating back to 2008. The Chargers, meanwhile, are on a 9-2 ATS streak as a home pup but are mired in a 1-5 ATS slide when hosting divisional games.
Doc's Picks Service
Odds Shark Staff Thu, May 12, 1:37pm