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Week 10 NFL Player Prop Bets To Target

Week 10 NFL Player Props

The correlation between fantasy football and weekly NFL prop bet analysis continues to amaze. While the book does have the advantage of the juice, there are edges to be found if you know where to look.

Week 10 Most Favorable NFL Prop Matchups

The seven teams allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks (20 or more FPAPG) are the Cardinals, Raiders, Falcons, Buccaneers, Bengals, Dolphins and Lions. The group allows an average of 286.5 pass yards and 2.14 touchdown passes per game.

The six teams allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs are the Lions, Bengals, Chiefs, Packers, Dolphins and Panthers. The group allows an average of 118 rush yards to opposing running backs ONLY per game.

Thursday Night Special: Chargers at Raiders 

The Oakland Raiders allow a per game average of five receptions, 64 yards and one touchdown to opposing tight ends. Hunter Henry is averaging 77.6 receiving yards per game this season. Hunter Henry 70+ Rec. Yards & 1+ Touchdowns at +250 has potential at BetOnline.

Chicago WRs vs Lions Pass Defense

Mitch Trubisky’s season hasn’t gone according to plan, but if he’s ever going to bust out of this offensive slump, this would be the matchup for it.

The Lions defense has allowed a league-high 3.7 red-zone touchdowns per game over their past three and allowed four to the Raiders last week. Allen Robinson’s matchup against Darius Slay may not look friendly on paper, but depending on the anytime touchdown vig may be worth a second look. Robinson accounts for a team-high 30 percent of Mitch Trubisky’s red-zone targets to date.

If you think Slay has too much of an advantage over Robinson, take a look at Taylor Gabriel. He’s caught seven passes for 122 yards over his past two games and 48+ yards is priced at +150 at BetOnline.

Jamison Crowder / Demaryius Thomas vs Giants Pass Defense

Pro Football Focus tagged Crowder vs Corey Ballentine as the most favorable WR vs CB matchup of the week. However, with the way opposing offenses have picked on Giants cornerback Deandre Baker, the receiver who lines up opposite him likely has the best advantage. Thomas 56+ receiving yards is priced at +138, while Crowder at 65+ receiving yards is priced at +127. Crowder is coming off a season-high eight receptions along with his first touchdown of the season.

Anytime Touchdown-Friendly Matchups

The Buccaneers defense has allowed 3.3 red-zone touchdowns per game over their past three and yielded four last week to the Seahawks. With the way Kenyan Drake performed in his Cardinals debut, don’t sleep on Arizona’s new running back. However, you’ll likely get better odds on receiver Christian Kirk or even tight end Charles Clay as Tampa Bay allows an average of seven receptions, 84 yards and a touchdown per game to opposing tight ends.

The Panthers defense has allowed 3.0 red-zone touchdowns per game over their past three. Jimmy Graham leads the Packers with nine red-zone targets (18.9% of team total), but if the Packers do get inside Carolina’s five-yard line, it’s more likely that Aaron Jones finishes off the drive. His nine carries inside the five ranks fifth among running backs.

The Falcons defense has allowed 3.0 red-zone touchdowns per game over their past three. If you want to roll the dice on Ted Ginn Jr., Tre’Quan Smith or Jared Cook against a soft Falcons secondary, this is your chance.