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Week 1 NFL Stats and Trends Betting Primer

NFL Week 1 Betting 2019

Week 1 of the NFL season is often one of the most challenging weeks of the season to handicap for the simple reason that a lot of the data and logic we’re using goes back to last season. Will some of that data and logic carry over into the new season? Sure, but we should also expect a fair amount of turnover as that’s the norm in the NFL year to year.

Aside from analyzing last year’s numbers for this week’s games, I pay particular attention to recent results from head-to-head matchups in divisional games and I especially like to look at how teams perform early in the season.

You can’t really apply a lot of Week 1 or September trends to teams with relatively new head coaches and a lot of player turnover, but I think we need to consider the ones for teams with long-standing head coach/QB combos.

Here’s a few Week 1 trends that I think are relevant to games this week:

- The Patriots are 13-2 SU in their last 15 Week 1 games.

- The Steelers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games in Week 1.

- The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last five Week 1 games.

- The Redskins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Week 1 games.

- The Seahawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six Week 1 games at home.

- The Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last five Week 1 games.

- The total has gone UNDER in six of the Panthers’ last seven Week 1 games.

- The Ravens have gone UNDER in four of their last five Week 1 games.

How to use this article this season:

It’s very important to never make a bet solely off trends. I view them as a starting point for your handicapping and consider actual stats as more important, but trends can be helpful as they show a team’s history of playing in certain situations. When looking at trends for a matchup, you’ll often find numbers to support each side, so consider the logic behind the data — is it a coincidence or something tangible that makes sense.

Trends for teams like the Patriots should always be considered as they’ve maintained key personnel for a very long time and they’ve proven to be dependable in many different betting spots. But, for a team like the Browns that’s had a tremendous amount of turnover over the past few seasons, recent historic numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. 

As the season goes on and we have more recent stats and trends piling up, these nuggets will be more helpful, so be sure to check back each week. Also be sure to monitor other info, such as injuries — and not just to skill-position players. Injuries on the offensive or defensive lines can have a major impact on a game. 

Now, what you’re all here for, the best stats and trends for every single game this week. Good luck, and as always ... KEEP CHASING THAT PAPER!

Packers-Bears
  • The Bears led the league in 1st-half point differential last season at +7.65. The Packers were 28th at -3.31. Chicago allowed a league low of just 5.8 points in the 1st half.
  • The Bears led the league in net yards per play at home last season.
  • The Packers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Bears allowed a league-low 17.6 points per game in 2018. Green Bay allowed the 5th-most points per game on the road at 29.4.
  • The Bears are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games vs their division at home.
  • The Packers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games at night.
  • The Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last five games at night.
  • The total has gone OVER in 18 of the Packers' last 24 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 54.54)
  • The Bears are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games as favorite.
  • The Packers are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games on the road vs the Bears.
Chiefs-Jaguars
  • The Chiefs are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games on the road in September, including 4-0 ATS the past two seasons.
  • The Chiefs led the league with 34.8 points per game last season, including the most points per game on the road at 38.2, while their games averaged a league-high 61.63 combined points. And, this might be no help at all because the Jags allowed a league-low 13.9 points per game at home while their games averaged a league-low 35.06 combined points.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Chiefs' last five games on the road. (Avg combined score: 77.6)
  • The Chiefs are 9-0 SU in their last nine games in the early afternoon.
  • The Jaguars are 3-10 SU in their last 13 games at home in September.
  • The Jaguars are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs AFC West teams.
  • The Chiefs are 4-0 SU in their last four games vs the Jaguars. (Avg winning margin: 17.25)
Ravens-Dolphins
  • The Dolphins are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games at home in September.
  • The Ravens are 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs the Dolphins. Miami scored just six points in the two most recent matchups.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Dolphins' last 11 games in Week 1.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Ravens' last seven games on the road. (Avg combined score: 37.71)
  • The Ravens are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as favorite.
  • The total has gone OVER in 14 of the Dolphins' last 20 games at home. (Avg combined score: 46.3)
Bills-Jets
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Bills' last nine games on the road vs the Jets.
  • The Jets allowed a league-high 31 points per game at home last season.
  • The Jets are 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Jets' last 14 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Bills' last seven games on the road. (Avg combined score: 36.43)
  • The Jets will have trouble finding legitimate success with Adam Gase as their head coach.
  • The Bills are 5-15 SU in their last 20 games as an underdog.
  • The Bills are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 1.
  • The favored team is 1-7 SU and ATS in the last eight games in this matchup.
Redskins-Eagles
  • The Redskins are 0-4 SU in their last four games vs the Eagles. (Avg losing margin: 15.5)
  • The Redskins are 0-4 SU in their last four games vs divisional opponents. (Avg losing margin: 17.75)
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Redskins' last 10 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 38.0)
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Eagles' last 13 games at home. (Avg combined score: 37.23)
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Redskins' last seven games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Redskins are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games in Week 1.
Falcons-Vikings
  • The total has gone OVER in nine of the Falcons' last 11 games in September. Atlanta scored over 31 points in three of its four September games last season.
  • The Falcons are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games on the road in September.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Vikings' last five games at home. (Avg combined score: 43.2)
  • The Vikings are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games at home in September.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Falcons' last seven games vs the Vikings. (Avg combined score: 38.29)
  • The Falcons are 3-11 SU in their last 14 games on the road vs the Vikings.
Rams-Panthers
  • The Super Bowl loser from the previous season is 3-16 ATS in Week 1 since 2000.
  • Jared Goff’s QB rating on the road last season was 82.7 which was much lower than his 116.7 mark at home.
  • The Panthers are 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 games as an underdog.
  • The Rams are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games as road favorites.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Panthers' last seven games at home. (Avg combined score: 50.71)
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Panthers' last seven games in Week 1.
  • The Panthers are 6-2 SU in their last eight games at home in September.
  • The visiting team is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games in this matchup.
Titans-Browns
  • The Browns are 0-13-1 SU and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 1.
  • Titans road games averaged a league-low 35.5 combined points last season.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 15 of the Browns' last 20 games at home. (Avg combined score: 38.65)
  • The Browns are 1-9-1 SU in their last 11 games in September.
  • The Browns are 6-36-1 SU in their last 43 games in the early afternoon.
Colts-Chargers
  • The Colts are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 1.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Colts' last nine games. (Avg combined score: 38.89)
  • The Colts are 4-12 SU in their last 16 games as road underdogs.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Chargers' last five games at home. (Avg combined score: 43.0)
  • The Chargers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games in Week 1.
  • The favored team is 1-9 ATS in the last 10 games in this matchup.
  • The visiting team is 17-7 ATS in the last 24 games in this matchup.
Bengals-Seahawks
  • The Seahawks are 14-0 SU and 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games at home in September.
  • Seattle led the league in rushing yards per game last season while the Bengals allowed the 4th-most rushing yards.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Seahawks' last nine games. (Avg combined score: 53.0)
  • The Bengals are 0-5 SU in their last five games on the road. (Avg losing margin: 10.8)
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Bengals' last nine games in Week 1.
  • The Bengals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in the late afternoon.
  • The Seahawks are 18-3 SU in their last 21 games when hosting an East Coast team.
Lions-Cardinals
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Lions' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 34.0)
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Cardinals' last 10 games at home. (Avg combined score: 33.1)
  • The Cardinals are 0-5 SU in their last five games in September.
  • The Lions are 6-2 SU in their last eight games in Week 1.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Cardinals' last six games in September.
  • The visiting team is 3-12 SU and 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games in this matchup.
  • The Cardinals were last in net yards per play last season and averaged a league-low 12.2 points per game at home.
Giants-Cowboys
  • The Cowboys are 8-1 SU and ATS in their last nine games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Giants are 0-4 SU in their last four games vs the Cowboys. (Avg losing margin: 11.0)
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Giants' last 10 games on the road vs the Cowboys.
  • The Giants are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs.
  • The Giants are 1-7 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games in Week 1.
  • The Giants are 2-10 SU in their last 12 games vs divisional opponents.
49ers-Buccaneers
  • The 49ers are 0-12 SU in their last 12 games on the East Coast.
  • The 49ers are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games on the East Coast.
  • The 49ers are 0-7 SU in their last seven games as road underdogs.
  • The 49ers are 0-9 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last nine games on the road in September.
  • Tampa Bay averaged the most passing yards per game last season.
  • The 49ers were last in red-zone TD scoring percentage last season.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Buccaneers' last six games at home. (Avg combined score: 42.17)
  • The visiting team is 3-9 SU and ATS in the last 12 games in this matchup.
Steelers-Patriots
  • The Patriots are 16-0 SU and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as home favorites.
  • At home in 2018, the Patriots averaged 11.5 more points than on the road.
  • Since 1998, the Patriots are 12-4 SU and 11-4-1 ATS vs the Steelers. (5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS at home)
  • The Patriots are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games at home in September.
  • The Steelers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games in Week 1.
  • The Steelers are 14-2 SU in their last 16 games at night.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Steelers' last eight games at night.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Patriots' last 12 games. (Avg combined score: 43.42)
  • The Steelers led the league in net yards per play on the road last season.
  • The Steelers led the NFL in red-zone TD scoring percentage last season (73.47%).
Texans-Saints
  • The Saints are just 2-13 ATS in their last 15 Week 1 and 2 games.
  • The Texans are 6-23-1 ATS in their last 30 games at night.
  • The Texans are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games as road underdogs.
  • The Texans are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games on Monday. 
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Saints' last nine games. (Avg combined score: 42.0)
  • The Saints are 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in their last six games at home in September.
  • The Saints are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games in Week 1.
Broncos-Raiders
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Raiders' last nine games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Broncos' last six games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Broncos' last nine games. (Avg combined score: 38.78)
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Raiders' last five games at night.
  • The Raiders allowed a league-high 29.4 points per game last season. Khalil Mack would have helped.
  • The Broncos are 17-3 SU in their last 20 games in September.
  • The Broncos are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games on Monday.
  • The Broncos are 2-8 SU and ATS in their last 10 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Broncos are 3-9 SU and 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games at night.
  • The visiting team is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in the last six games in this matchup.