Survivor pools have quickly become one of the most popular ways to get in on the NFL season. Whether doing them in the office or with friends, the concept is straightforward and anyone can participate.
But survivor pools aren’t easy.
Picking one winner per week is harder than it might seem, especially as we get deeper into the season. That’s why you must go into your survivor pool with a strategy. We’re here to win, my friends, and you aren’t getting those bragging rights (and accompanying prize money) by simply picking a random good team each week.
This article will outline some strategies you can use throughout the season and provide some dos and don’ts for survivor pools, but you can also follow along with us as we make a pick each week while looking ahead to potential picks a few weeks ahead.
If you get booted out of your pool early or just want more ways to get in on the NFL betting season, Odds Shark has you covered. Head over to our Best NFL betting sites, Super Bowl odds or NFL player props pages. Or get more info on how to win your NFL survivor pool with our NFL survivor pool strategy guide.
Jump To The Week 4 NFL Survivor Pool Pick
Here are some points to consider when mapping out how you want to approach your pool this season:
NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Strategy
Know The Rules Of Your Pool
This is the most important thing to watch for before you make your pick for Week 1. Every pool is different and Bill from accounting or whoever set up your pool might have a couple of weird rules thrown in that you need to know. Tiebreakers, pools that allow buybacks, pools that make you select multiple games per week, pools that run into the playoffs and pools that use spreads instead of straight-up winners can all affect your approach. Learn the rules of your pool and act accordingly.
The size of your pool should also affect your strategy. Small pools with just a few friends don’t typically last as long, so you may opt to deploy a more conservative approach by using some of the best teams early in the season.
But if you’re in a huge office pool or large online pool, you need to be thinking long term if you want to last to the end.
Pay Attention To The ‘Hot Team’ Each Week
Fading the most popular survivor pick each week is a pretty good strategy in a lot of weeks because an upset of the team everyone is picking might get you closer to a win. You will be taking on a little bit of added risk by selecting a “worse” matchup, but the payoff could be worth it. This strategy will also help you save some better teams for later in the season, which leads to our final point.
Conserve Good Teams Until Later If Possible
This is especially relevant when in a larger pool. It can be very tempting to burn through a few of the best teams early in the season “just to survive,” but you will be looking at the list of teams available to you in Week 10 and sweating it out when you have to pick between the Bears and Jets to win a game. We don’t want to go overboard, but if you can make it through the first part of the year without burning some of the top teams, the payoff could be huge when you get to use the Chiefs or Bills in November or December.
Week 1 is far too early to be able to map our every pick all season because we know that a lot will change over the first few weeks of the season. Injuries, breakout performances, coach firings, cuts and signings will all drastically change how we view the league a few weeks from now. So, we want to look ahead a little bit but retain our flexibility for picks later in the year.
NFL Survivor Pool Picks 2022: Week 4
The Eagles came through for us in Week 3 by decisively beating the Commanders. Philly looks like one of the best teams in the league at this point, but there weren’t a lot of great options last week so I don’t feel too bad about burning through a good team early in the season.
Hopefully you were as concerned about Justin Herbert as I was and avoided the Chargers – the second-most popular team in Yahoo survivor pools last weekend – and didn’t overlook the suddenly dangerous Jaguars.
I was also right to avoid the Chiefs. Sportsbooks weren’t as confident in the Chiefs as the public last week, and I feel good that we still have them in our back pocket for an easier matchup than Indy moving forward.
If you are still alive at this point, you are likely in the minority for your pool if you haven’t won it outright already. But let’s try to keep going in Week 4 with another correct NFL survivor pool selection.
Week 4 has one overwhelming favorite with almost every other game expected to be close.
Here are the most popular picks at this point in the week and the percentage of users picking that team according to Yahoo survivor pool data.
And here are the teams most likely to win in Week 4 based on implied win probability using moneylines from Bodog and our Odds Calculator.
The decision this week pretty much comes down to whether or not you want to use the Packers. They are one of the better teams in the league, the only huge favorite on the slate and playing at home against a poor team starting a backup quarterback.
It would be a massive upset if the Packers lost.
That said, you could gain huge leverage on the field in your pool if you go a different direction and the Packers somehow lose. Being contrarian is one of the best strategies in NFL survivor pools and with so many upsets already this season, there’s a good chance you could win your pool outright if you fade the Pack and they lose.
I love that strategy in theory, but the problem is there aren’t many other good options this week. The Eagles are the second-biggest favorite of the week and have to play the upstart Jags, who just broke survivor pool hearts last week.
The Chargers can’t be trusted with Justin Herbert banged up, the Lions can’t be trusted in any scenario and the Bengals play the undefeated Dolphins on a short week. That’s it for the biggest favorites on the slate.
I feel OK about the Cowboys at home against Washington, but I don’t think this is a week to get too cute. Again, if you’re still in your pool at this point, there probably aren’t a lot of others playing along with you. That’s why I’m going with the chalk this week. Next week is going to be quite a bit tougher.
Week 4 NFL Survivor Pool: The Pick
Green Bay Packers
I’m not going to overthink this one. With no other great options this weekend, the Packers are the logical choice as double-digit favorites.
Green Bay’s defense is one of the best in the league and should be able to prevent a Patriots offense led by Brian Hoyer from scoring too many points.
Yes, we’re burning a good team early in the year. But we still have the likes of Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Buffalo, Baltimore, the Chargers and Miami to use.
Check out the table below where we will keep track of the teams as we pick them. We will mark picks we got wrong with an X, picks we got right with a ✔ and a pending pick with an O.
NFL Survivor Pool Picks
What is an NFL survivor pool?
In most NFL survivor pools, you pick one team each week to win their game that week. If the team you picked wins, you move on to the next week. If your team loses, you are out. You can not pick a team more than once, and the last person still in the pool wins.
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