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NFL Thanksgiving Day Betting Picks, Stats and Trends Primer

Betting on the NFL Thanksgiving Day football games is as American as a fist fight at the mall on Black Friday. I’m sure your cheapskate bookie will be leading the stampede at his local Walgreens when they open for Black Friday to save 20 percent on adult diapers, but I’ll be leading the charge against him on Thanksgiving. 

Since 2005 on Thanksgiving, favorites are 27-11 ATS (71%)

Let’s get down to business! Thanksgiving has many traditions, and backing betting favorites on Turkey Day is a great one. Since 2005 on Thanksgiving, favorites are 27-11 ATS (71%). The trend of favorites covering on Thanksgiving is a long-standing one, as they’ve gone 50-29 ATS (63%) since 1984.

Another tradition in Thanksgiving Day games is that they tend to get more out of hand than a group of dudes fighting over discounted Axe body spray at that same Walgreens where your bookie is buying his diapers. Since 2000, 31 of the 48 games have been decided by double digits, so don’t be shocked if we see a blowout or two.

Best NFL Bets for Thanksgiving day games:

Based primarily on the content in this article, here’s my best bets for each NFL Thanksgiving Day game using lines from Wednesday, November 21:

Stats and Trends for Thanksgiving Day:

Bears at Lions
  • The Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last six Thanksgiving games.
  • The Bears are allowing an average of 15.25 points over their last four games.
  • The Lions rank 31st in net yards per play at home and 32nd over their last three games.
  • The Lions are rushing for just 78.7 yards per game over their last three games.
  • The Bears are allowing a league-low 77.8 rushing yards per game. They’ve allowed just 65.3 over their last three games.
  • The Bears are allowing 19.5 points per game on the road — fourth-best in the NFL.
  • The Bears have the best first-half point differential in the league at +10.2. The Lions are at -1.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Bears' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 53.0)
  • The Bears have the fifth-most sacks in the NFL.
  • The Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games on the road vs the Lions.
  • The Bears are 0-5 SU in their last five games on the road vs the Lions. (Avg losing margin: 8.2)
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Lions' last eight games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Lions are 1-4 SU in their last five games after a win.
Redskins at Cowboys
  • The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS in their last seven Thanksgiving games.
  • The Redskins rank 31st in net yards per play over their last three games.
  • At home this season, the Cowboys are averaging 149.8 rushing yards. This is third-best in the NFL.
  • The average combined score in Redskins road games this season is 36 points.
  • These teams combined for just 37 points on October 21.
  • Over their last three games, the Redskins are allowing 305.3 passing yards per game — the third-most over this span.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 14 of the Cowboys' last 19 games. (Avg combined score: 37.89)
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Redskins' last 14 games. (Avg combined score: 38.5)
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Redskins' last six games vs the Cowboys. (Avg combined score: 50.83)
  • The Redskins are 5-17 SU in their last 22 games on the road vs the Cowboys.
  • The Redskins are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games on the road vs the Cowboys.
  • The Cowboys are 15-6 SU in their last 21 games at home after consecutive road games.
  • The Redskins are 5-0 SU in their last five games after a loss.
Falcons at Saints
  • The Saints have a league-best first-half spread record of 8-2 ATS.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the last eight TNF games and the favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven TNF games.
  • The Saints are averaging 186 rushing yards per game over their last three games — second-best in the NFL over this span.
  • The Saints are averaging 48 points over their last three games.
  • Atlanta ranks 29th in opponents' red-zone TD scoring percentage.
  • Saints home games this season have an average combined score of 64.8.
  • The Saints are allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game at 77.9.
  • These teams combined for 80 points in the Saints’ 43-37 win vs the Falcons in Atlanta on September 23.
  • The total has gone OVER in 19 of the Saints' last 27 games at home. (Avg combined score: 61.3)
  • The Saints are 9-0 SU in their last nine games. (Avg winning margin: 16.33)
  • The Falcons are 3-9 SU in their last 12 games on the road vs the Saints.

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