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NFL Trends: Week 12 Betting

It’s fitting that we say good-bye to ‘bye weeks’ in Week 12, right around the same time we say good-bye to the playoff hopes of most NFL teams.

The Philadelphia Eagles were 10/1 odds to win the Super Bowl to start the season, but they are done. If not for three last-second wins by two points or less, they would be 0-10.

The trend in New Orleans has swung hard the other way. After starting 0-4, the Saints are back in the mix but facing a tough home match in Week 12 as the 49ers visit.

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Thanksgiving forces six teams into short weeks, which can be an important handicapping angle. Houston hits the road for Detroit and they have been dynamite as a road team, earning huge profits for bettors.

Washington visits Dallas on Thursday as well and they have dominated the Cowboys against the spread, covering nine of 11 meetings. They have covered five straight in Dallas. They are also 8-2 ATS in 10 recent games within the NFC East.

And the Patriots are 7-point road favorites against the Jets. They are 9-2 ATS in 11 trips here over the past decade and they have played eight straight OVERs in 2012.

Four teams come off their bye weeks, Tennessee, Minnesota, NY Giants and Seattle. The Seahawks have been a disaster after the bye, covering twice in 13 seasons. And they have been an almost-guaranteed OVER bet in this situation (11-1 past 12 seasons).

The Steelers are 16-1 SU in 17 games against the Browns, but can they beat them without a QB? Can Denver, 0-10 ATS in their past 10 games as a favorite of 8+ points, cover a huge road spread in Kansas City? The last time they were a double-digit road favorite, it was against KC and they lost 33-19.

Check out Week 12 NFL betting trends on every game below. [ Odds were Week 12 NFL opening lines from BetOnline ]

Thu - Houston at Detroit (+3) (12:30pm ET)

Texans 8-2 SU & ATS past 10 road games
Texans 7-1 SU & ATS past 8 games in November
Lions 2-6-1 ATS past 9 games as underdog

Thu - Washington at Dallas (-3) (4:15pm ET)

Redskins 9-2 ATS past 11 games vs Dallas
Redskins 5-0 ATS past 5 trips to Dallas
Cowboys 2-9 ATS past 11 games as home favorite
Cowboys 2-9 ATS past 11 vs NFC East foes
Redskins 8-2 ATS past 10 vs NFC East foes

Thu - New England at NY Jets (+7) (8:20pm ET)

New England has played 8 straight OVERs
Patriots 9-2 ATS past 11 road games vs Jets
Pats 15-4-1 ATS past 20 road games
Pats played 7 straight OVERs as favorite
OVER is 15-1 past 16 Pats games within AFC East

Sun - Minnesota at Chicago (off) (1:00pm ET)

Vikings OVER is 12-2 past 14 games after a bye week
Vikes 0-5 ATS and SU past 5 vs Bears
Bears 7-1-1 ATS past 9 home games vs Vikes

Sun - Oakland at Cincinnati (-9.5) (1:00pm ET)

5 of past 6 meetings played UNDER total
Raiders 0-4 ATS at Cincy since 1992
Bengals 3-7-1 ATS past 11 home games

Sun - Pittsburgh at Cleveland (off) (1:00pm ET)

Steelers 16-1 SU past 17 games vs Browns
UNDER is 7-1 past 8 Browns games as home dog
Browns 5-1-1 ATS past 7 divisional games
Steelers played 5 straight UNDERs within AFC North

Sun - Buffalo at Indianapolis (-3) (1:00pm ET)

Colts 6-1 SU vs Bills since 2000
OVER is 14-4 past 18 Bills game when underdog
Colts 6-1 SU & ATS past 7 home games

Sun - Denver at Kansas City (+11.5) (1:00pm ET)

Broncos 0-10 ATS past 10 games as fave of 8+ points
Broncos 4-1 ATS past 5 trips to KC
OVER is 7-1 past 8 Broncos road games
UNDER is 7-1 past 8 KC games as dog of 8+ points

Sun - Seattle at Miami (+1.5) (1:00pm ET)

Seattle OVER is 11-1 past 12 games after a bye week
Seattle 2-10-1 ATS past 13 games after a bye week
Dolphins 4-1 ATS past 5 vs Seahawks
Seahawks lost 3 straight a road favorite

Sun - Atlanta at Tampa Bay (pick) (1:00pm ET)

Bucs 9-3 ATS past 12 games in November
Falcons 7-2 ATS on the road in November since 2006

Sun - Tennessee at Jacksonville (+2.5) (1:00pm ET)

Jaguars 0-5 SU & ATS past 5 home games
Titans 2-8 ATS past 10 games as favorite
Jaguars 3-17 SU past 20 games as underdog
Titans 1-7 ATS past 8 within AFC South
Titans OVER is 6-2 past 8 games following bye

Sun - Baltimore at San Diego (pick) (4:05pm ET)

OVER is 6-1 past 7 Chargers games
Ravens 9-1 SU vs AFC West since 2007
Chargers 1-7 ATS past 8 vs AFC North

Sun - St. Louis at Arizona (-1) (4:25pm ET)

Rams 2-10 SU past 12 vs Cardinals
Rams 1-12-1 SU past 14 road games
Rams covered 4 straight within division

Sun - San Francisco at New Orleans (off) (4:25pm ET)

Saints 6-1 SU past 7 games vs 49ers
UNDER 12-2-1 past 15 meetings in New Orleans
Saints 12-2 ATS past 14 home games

Sun - Green Bay at NY Giants (-1) (8:20pm ET)

Packers 9-1 ATS past 10 games as underdog
OVER is 7-1 past 8 meetings
Giants 3-8-1 ATS past 12 games as home favorite
Packers 4-0 SU past 4 visit to New York

Mon - Carolina at Philadelphia (off) (8:30pm ET)

Eagles lost 6 in a row, past 3 by 13 points or more
Panthers 1-4 ATS past 5 vs Eagles
Panthers 6-2 ATS past 8 road games
Eagles 1-5 ATS as favorite (will open later as chalk)