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The Best Betting Spots for NFL Moneyline Underdogs

NFL Underdogs and When to Take Moneyline - Gardner Minshew

I detailed a profitable strategy after Week 1 in the NFL of taking the moneyline instead of the spread for underdogs of 3 points or less and I’m here to tell you it still remains a profitable strategy.

After three weeks of the 2019 season, underdogs with a closing line of 3 or lower are now 11-6-1 SU after 18 games. That’s a profit of $740.71 if you had bet $100 on each game, with a 64.7 percent success rate.

Even spread bettors would be laughing all the way to the bank by tailing these dogs because they’ve gone on to cover the spread in 13 of 18 games.

Road Dogs Are Carrying Their Weight

When trying to determine the betting edge and why this has been successful, one factor stood out like a sore thumb: road dogs in this spot are killing it.

In 10 games with road underdogs of 3 points or less, the pups are 7-3 SU and ATS for a profit of $570.48 if you had bet $100 each time.

Does that mean you should avoid the home dogs of 3 points or less? Maybe not for the moneyline but bettors may want to take the spread. In eight games, the home dogs are 6-2 ATS in this spot.

Also worth noting is that these games are falling wayyyy short of the totals. In those 18 games, the UNDER is hitting 72.2 percent of the time. Yikes!

Here is the full record with home and away splits below through three weeks:

LocationSU OverallATS OverallO/U Overall
Home/Away11-6-1 (64.7%)13-5 (72.2%)5-13 (27.8%)
Home4-3-1 (57.1%)6-2 (75%)2-6 (25%)
Away7-3 (70%)7-3 (70%)3-7 (30%)

Underdogs of 3 points or less going into Week 4: Washington Redskins, Jacksonville Jaguars, Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints.

You Don’t Have To Stick To The Rule of 3

I dove into Odds Shark’s database to see if this strategy works for another common spread like 6 points or less and let’s just say road dogs are barking! 

Twenty-two games in the 2019 season have had road underdogs with a closing line of 6 points or less. Those teams are 13-9 SU for a profit of $1,115.48 for $100 bettors. They’ve also covered the spread in 15 of those games at a 73 percent success rate.

Home dogs were actually a letdown in this spot as they’re 4-7-1 SU and 6-6 ATS in 12 games. You’d be down $259.76 if you had bet $100 each time.

Here is the full record with home and away splits through three weeks:

LocationSU OverallATS OverallO/U Overall
Home/Away17-16-1 (52%)21-12-1 (62.5%)16-18 (45.5%)
Home4-7-1 (36.4%)6-6 (50%)5-7 (41.7%)
Away13-9 (58.7%)15-6-1 (73%)11-11 (50%)

Nine teams are currently underdogs of 6 points or less for Week 4: Philadelphia Eagles, Carolina Panthers, Tennessee Titans, Arizona Cardinals, Washington Redskins, Jacksonville Jaguars, Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints and Cincinnati Bengals.