NFL Week 1 Game-By-Game Odds Analysis Part II

This is Part II of the NFL odds breakdown for Week 1. It covers all of the late afternoon games (4 p.m. ET) on Sunday. 

The idea is take a look at how oddsmakers are thinking with their odds because their primary objective is to figure out what you’re thinking and set lines accordingly. (Part I covering the early games is here.)  

Latest NFL odds here. 

FYI: ATS = against the spread, SU = straight up, O/U = OVER/UNDER 

Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks (Open -7.5, 44, moved to -11.5, 44) 

We have another massive line move in this one. The Seahawks were the third-most popular futures bet to win the Super Bowl at Sportsbook and very popular at other books, so there is a lot of Seabirds love out there. The Dolphins closed last season 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS and the public is probably still sour on them. Seattle is 27-5 SU over the past four seasons at home and I’d put the home edge at more than the standard 3 points here – maybe even 5 points for the season opener. I think oddsmakers opened this line a little low, though, in the thought that bettors would respect Miami’s new additions on offense and defense and the books moved the lines on their own when they weren’t drawing action early on. After drawing cash on Seattle at the increased line, they moved the line up and it looks like Miami is getting some interest at double digits. 

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (Open -4, 49.5, moved to PICK, 46) 

There is something strange about this line. I have Tony Romo worth 6 points to the spread and he might even be worth more than that when it comes to the game outcome, though the market perception may be different.  But this line only moved four points and in some cases only a field goal after his preseason back injury. So you could say there’s some value right there. I think many were impressed by new Cowboys starter Dak Prescott in exhibition play but I don’t give the preseason much weight. It’s another one of those divisional games where the public tends to think these contests play close. About 70 percent of the bets are on the Giants and folks seem to love the money New York spent on defense to fix a disgraceful unit from a season ago.   

Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts (Open -5, 49.5, moved to -3, 51) 

I think books made a slight miscalculation on how bettors would react to this game and the line has now moved down to a field goal at some spots. There was a bunch of futures love for a Colts team that many expect to be pretty decent this year and they are favored to win the AFC South. So I’m sure books expected more Indianapolis action at home in Week 1 against a Lions team that went 4-12 last year. The money is overwhelmingly on Detroit and the OVER in this game so the market must think the Lions will find a way to get some points on offense despite the unexpected retirement of Calvin Johnson. 

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