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NFL Week 10 Betting Primer

I don’t know about you, but I feel like it’s been a strange week. This likely has something to do with daylight savings time, which was convenient on Sunday morning as it gave me some extra time to recover following a late night of UFC watching and beer “tasting.” But now, I don’t like that it gets darker earlier, so I’ll be taking my displeasure out on that greaseball bookie who probably lusts after the darkness like a perverted vampire.

So, on to the business at hand. If you’ve been a weekly consumer of the NFL Betting Primer, you know I’m all about net yards per play, or more importantly, net yards per play over a team’s last three games.

Looking at the top seven teams below, they’re a combined 17-4 ATS, while the bottom six are 3-17-1 ATS. If that isn’t proof of how valuable this stat is, I don’t know what else is.

Here’s a look at the best and worst teams in that spot coming into Week 10:

net yards per play over last 3 games
BEST TEAMSWORST TEAMS
Jacksonville (2-1 ATS)NY Giants (1-2 ATS)
New Orleans (2-1 ATS)San Francisco (0-3 ATS)
Seattle (1-2 ATS)Green Bay (0-3 ATS)
Philadelphia (3-0 ATS)Indianapolis (2-1 ATS)
Minnesota (3-0 ATS)Cincinnati (0-3 ATS)
Pittsburgh (3-0 ATS)Tampa Bay (0-2-1 ATS)
Dallas (3-0 ATS)Denver (0-3 ATS)

And one quick trend to keep tabs on this week and for the remainder of the season: Teams coming off TNF games are now 10-4-2 ATS with a 12-4 O/U record. This is relevant for the Bills and Jets this week.

ENJOY THE ACTION AND KEEP CHASING THAT PAPER!

    Saints at Bills
    • Over their last three games, the Saints rank second in the NFL in net yards per play. The Bills rank 28th over the course of the entire season.
    • Teams coming off Thursday night games (Bills in this case) are 10-4-2 ATS with a 12-4 O/U record.
    • The Saints are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games against the Bills.
    • The total has gone OVER in 11 of the Bills' last 12 games at home. The average combined score in those games was 52.75.
    • The Saints are allowing just 14.8 points per game on the road this season.
    • Over their last three games, the Saints are allowing a league-low 114 passing yards per game.
    • The total has gone UNDER in three of the Saints' last four games against the Bills.
    • The Bills are 7-2 SU and ATS in their last nine games after losing as a favorite.
    • The Bills are 4-1 SU in their last five games in the early afternoon.
    • The Saints are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
    • The Saints are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games on the road against teams with winning records.
    • The Bills are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as home underdogs.
    • The Saints are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games on the road after consecutive home games.
    • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Saints' last seven games on the road against teams with winning records.
    Chargers at Jaguars
    • Over their last three games, the Jaguars ranks first in the NFL in net yards per play, and second over the course of the entire season.
    • The Chargers are 26-3-1 ATS in their last 30 games against AFC South teams.
    • The Jaguars are 0-12 SU in their last 12 games against AFC West teams.
    • The Jaguars are allowing a league-low 14.6 points per game this season.
    • The Jaguars haven’t won consecutive home games since the 2011 season.
    • The Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after a bye week.
    • The Chargers are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six games against the Jaguars.
    • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Chargers' nine career games against the Jaguars.
    • The Jaguars are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games at home.
    • The Jaguars are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in November.
    • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Jaguars' last nine games when hosting a West Coast team.
    • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Chargers' last seven games on the road.
    • The Chargers are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games on the road after losing their most recent road game.
    • The Chargers are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games on the road against teams with winning records.
    • The Chargers are 5-16 SU in their last 21 games on the road.
    • The Jaguars are 0-10 SU and ATS in their last 10 games at home after winning their most recent home game.
    Bengals at Titans
    • The Titans are 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games at home.
    • The Bengals are 5-15 SU in their last 20 games on the road against the Titans.
    • The Bengals are 0-9 SU in their last nine games as road underdogs.
    • The Bengals are averaging a league-worst 72.2 rushing yards per game, and 52.7 over their last three games.
    • The Bengals are 3-1 ATS in their last four games on the road against the Titans.
    • The total has gone OVER in six of the Bengals' last seven games on the road against the Titans.
    • The Bengals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after consecutive ATS losses.
    • The Bengals are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games on the road after failing to cover in their two most recent road games.
    • The Titans are 9-28-2 ATS in their last 39 games vs AFC teams.
    • The total has gone OVER in five of the Titans' last seven games.
    • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Bengals' last eight games in the early afternoon.
    • The Bengals are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games on the road against teams with winning records.
    Browns at Lions
    • The Browns are 1-7 SU in their last eight games against the Lions.
    • The total has gone OVER in four of the Lions' last five games at home. The average combined score in those games was 51.
    • The Browns are 0-16 SU in their last 16 games on the road.
    • The total has gone OVER in three of the Browns' last four games against the Lions.
    • The Lions are 12-3 SU in their last 15 games as home favorites.
    • The Browns are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games following their bye week.
    • The Browns are 1-5 ATS in their last six games in the early afternoon.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Browns' last 15 games as underdog.
    • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Lions' last 10 games after a win.
    • The Lions are 12-3 SU in their last 15 games as home favorites.
    Cowboys at Falcons
    • The Falcons are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite.
    • The Cowboys lead the NFL with 188.3 rushing yards per game over their last three games. The Falcons have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game over their last three games.
    • The total has gone OVER in four of the Cowboys' last five games against the Falcons. The average combined score in those games was 52.6.
    • The favored team is 12-3 SU in the last 15 games in this matchup.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Falcons' last 15 games at home in November.
    • The Falcons are 5-2 SU in their last seven games after a loss.
    • The Falcons are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after losing as a favorite.
    • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Cowboys' last eight games in the late afternoon.
    • The Cowboys are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games as underdog.
    Giants at 49ers
    • Over their last three games, these teams rank 31st (49ers) and 32nd (Giants) in net yards per play.
    • The 49ers have allowed a league-high 181.3 rushing yards per game over their last three games. The Giants have allowed a league-high 332.7 passing yards per game over their last three games.
    • The Giants are 6-2 SU in their last eight games against the 49ers.
    • The total has gone UNDER in three of the Giants' last four games on the road against the 49ers.
    • The 49ers are 0-11 SU and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games at home.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 13 of the 49ers' last 17 games in November.
    • The Giants are 0-6 ATS in their last six games on the road after winning their most recent road game.
    • The Giants are 9-3 SU and ATS in their last 12 games on the road after consecutive home games.
    • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Giants' last 10 games on the West Coast.
    • The Giants are 2-7 SU in their last nine games on the road in November.
    Jets at Buccaneers
    • Teams coming off Thursday night games (Jets in this case) are 10-4-2 ATS with a 12-4 O/U record.
    • The Jets are 8-0 SU and ATS in their last eight games against the Buccaneers.
    • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Jets' last seven games against the Buccaneers.
    • The Buccaneers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
    • The Jets are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games.
    • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Buccaneers' last seven games at home. The average combined score in those games was 30.9.
    • The Buccaneers are 5-0 SU in their last five games at home against teams with losing records.
    • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Jets' last 10 games in the early afternoon.
    • The Jets are 0-6 SU and ATS in their last six games on the road in November.
    • The Jets are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games after winning as an underdog.
    Packers at Bears
    • The last time the Packers lost four straight games SU and ATS was in 2008.
    • The Bears are allowing just 15.8 points per game at home this season.
    • The Bears are 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 games after their bye week.
    • Over their last three games, the Packers rank 30th in net yards per play.
    • The Packers are 7-1 SU in their last eight games against the Bears.
    • The Packers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against the Bears.
    • The total has gone OVER in six of the Packers' last eight games against the Bears.
    • The Bears are 0-5 SU in their last five games vs divisional opponents.
    • The Bears are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games at home.
    • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Bears' last eight games.
    • The total has gone OVER in six of the Packers' last seven games on the road.
    • The Packers are 6-1 SU in their last seven games on the road against teams with losing records.
    • The Packers are 6-15 SU in their last 21 games as road underdogs.
    • The Packers are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games on a three-game SU losing streak.
    Patriots at Broncos
    • The Broncos have lost four straight games SU and ATS. The losses were by an average of 18 points.
    • The Patriots are 28-2 SU in the last 30 as a road favorite of 7 or more points.
    • This is just the fourth time since 1980 that the Broncos are home dogs of 7 or more points.
    • The Broncos are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 home games vs the Patriots.
    • The Patriots are allowing a league-high 333.7 passing yards per game on the road.
    • The Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games following a bye week.
    • The Patriots are 4-18 SU in their last 22 games on the road against the Broncos.
    • The Patriots are 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite.
    • The Patriots are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games on the road against the Broncos.
    • The Broncos are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games at home after consecutive road games.
    • The Broncos are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games in November.
    • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Broncos' last 12 games after a loss.
    • The Patriots are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games.
    • The Patriots are 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games on the road.
    • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Patriots' last six games on the road against teams with losing records.
    Steelers at Colts
    • The Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following their bye week.
    • The Colts are allowing a league-high 28.9 points per game and a league-high 301.8 passing yards per game at home.
    • Over their last three games, the Steelers are allowing a league-low 56.7 rushing yards per game.
    • The Steelers are 14-2 SU in their last 16 games against the Colts.
    • The Steelers are 3-0 ATS in their last three games against the Colts.
    • The total has gone OVER in four of the Steelers' last five games against the Colts.
    • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Colts' last 11 games in the early afternoon.
    • The Colts are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as home underdogs.
    • The Colts are 0-6 SU and ATS in their last six games after a win.
    • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Steelers' last eight games. The average combined score in those games was 37.25.
    • The Colts are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games in November.
    • The Steelers are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games in the early afternoon.
    • The Steelers are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against AFC South teams.
    • The Steelers are 15-3 SU in their last 18 games.
    Texans at Rams
    • The Rams lead the NFL in points per game (32.9). The Texans are allowing the third-most points per game (26).
    • The Texans are 0-3 ATS in their last three games against the Rams.
    • The visiting team is 3-0 SU in the last three games in this matchup.
    • The Rams are 1-8 SU in their last nine games at home.
    • The Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games at home.
    • The Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against AFC South teams.
    • The Rams are 4-15 SU in their last 19 games after consecutive wins.
    • The Rams are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games in Week 10.
    • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Rams' last 10 games. The average combined score in those games was 51.1.
    • The total has gone OVER in five of the Texans' last six games.
    • The Texans are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last six games on the road against teams with winning records.
    • The Texans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games in the late afternoon.
    Vikings at Redskins
    • The Vikings rank 3rd in net yards per play this season. Washington ranks 25th over its last three games.
    • The Vikings are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following their bye week.
    • The total has gone OVER in the Vikings' last five games against the Redskins.
    • The visiting team is 0-4 SU and ATS in the last four games in this matchup.
    • The Redskins are 1-5 ATS in their last six games at home.
    • The Redskins are 1-5 SU in their last six games after a win.
    • The Vikings are 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games on the road.
    • The Vikings are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games after losing the previous game in a matchup.
    Dolphins at Panthers
    • The Panthers are 12-0 SU and 10-1-1 ATS since 2010 as a home favorite of 7 or more points.
    • The Dolphins are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games at night.
    • The Dolphins are averaging a league-worst 14.5 points per game and 9 points per game on the road. Over their last three games, the Panthers are allowing just 12.3 points per game.
    • The Panthers are allowing just 68.7 rushing yards per game over their last three games. The Dolphins are averaging just 61.3 rushing yards per game over their last three.
    • The Dolphins are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their five all-time games against the Panthers.
    • The Panthers are 26-6 SU in their last 32 games as home favorites.
    • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Dolphins' last five games on the road. The average combined score in those games was 36.2.
    • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Dolphins' last five games against the Panthers.
    • The Panthers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games at night.
    • The Panthers are 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after winning as an underdog.
    • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Panthers' last nine games as favorite.
    • The total has gone OVER in five of the Dolphins' last six games in November.
    • The Dolphins are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games on the road against teams with winning records.
    Seahawks at Cardinals
    • In 21 career night games, Russell Wilson has a 16-4-1 ATS record.
    • The Seahawks are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games on Thursday.
    • The total has gone OVER in 10 of the Seahawks' last 13 games on the road against the Cardinals. The average combined score in those games was 44.2.
    • The visiting team is 4-0-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in the last five games in this matchup.
    • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Cardinals' last seven games. The average combined score in those games was 40.3.
    • The Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as road favorites.
    • The Cardinals are 24-8-1 SU in their last 33 games at home.
    • The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in their last six divisional home games.
    • The Seahawks are 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games after losing as a favorite.
    • The Seahawks are 13-4 SU in their last 17 games in November.
    • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Seahawks' last 10 games vs divisional opponents.
    • The Seahawks are 6-0 SU in their last six games at night.
    • The Seahawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games at night.
    • The Cardinals are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games after a win.
    • The Cardinals are 8-2-1 SU in their last 11 games at night.
    • The Cardinals are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games at night.

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