NFL Week 12 Betting Trends Analysis

If the New England Patriots are going to lose a regular-season game, it's likely going to happen Sunday night when they take on the Broncos in Denver.

The Patriots are without Dion Lewis and are thin in the offensive line and wide receiver, too, because of multiple injuries. The Broncos have won 11 of their last 13 home contests.

New England is a field goal favorite. It's only the second time Denver is an underdog during its last 30 home games. The Broncos defeated Green Bay, 29-10, as 2.5-point home underdogs on November 1.

Trends Side With Packers Against Bears

The late Thanksgiving game pits Chicago at Green Bay. The Bears are plus nine. The Packers have dominated the series winning 12 of the last 14 times. Aaron Rodgers is 10-0 versus the Bears when throwing at least five passes. Jay Cutler has lost eight in a row against the Packers throwing 20 interceptions during this streak.

Green Bay is off an impressive 30-13 road victory against Minnesota in what closed as a pick'em spread. The Packers have won 11 consecutive times after covering the week before.

Need an excuse to take 10.5 points with San Francisco at home to Arizona? The 49ers are 7-2-1 against the spread (ATS) the past 10 times as a home underdog. San Francisco has held its five home opponents to an average of 15.2 points a game this season. The Cardinals have lost 10 of the past 13 times to the 49ers with six of those defeats occurring when Jim Harbaugh was coaching the 49ers.

Raiders Have Struggled as the Road Chalk

Conflicting bad trends emerge when discussing Oakland being a two-point road favorite against Tennessee. The Raiders have lost and failed to cover eight of the last nine times as road chalk, including falling to Detroit, 18-13, as two-point favorites last Sunday. The Titans don't exactly inspire confidence, though, having dropped their last 10 home games with nine coming under former coach Ken Whisenhunt.

The New York Jets have been bad, too, when laying points going 2-7 ATS the past nine times in that role. The Jets are laying 3.5 to Miami at home. The Dolphins, however, have lost their last six AFC East Division matchups.