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NFL Week 12 Expert Betting Odds Picks

A pair of under the total plays are among my three NFL Week 12 recommendations.

Let's begin with San Francisco hosting Arizona where the total is 45. The 49ers have gone under in four of their five home games. I'll stick with that trend.

The 49ers aren't going to manage many points versus a tough Cardinals defense, especially down to free agents running the ball and Blaine Gabbert behind center. San Francisco, though, has played strong defense at home surrendering 15.2 points per game.

This is a flat spot for Arizona following a huge home Sunday night victory against Cincinnati on national television. Playing on the slow, grass field of Levi's Stadium isn't a plus for the up-tempo Arizona offense.

Take the UNDER for Saints vs Texans

The over has cashed three straight times in games involving New Orleans. This isn't a surprise since the Saints are on pace to surrender the most touchdown passes in league history. Yet I like New Orleans-Houston to go under 47.5 points.

During their bye, the Saints made a necessary - and much overdue change - firing defensive coordinator Rob Ryan and putting Dennis Allen in his place. The Saints defense has been made to look worse by Ryan, who never successfully adapted to today's pass-happy style of football.

The Texans have slowed down the pace of their offense considerably. They have journeymen running backs with Arian Foster out. I'm expecting the Texans to milk clock and play for field position trying to keep the ball from Drew Brees. Houston's defense has allowed only two touchdowns during the past 14 quarters, recording 12 sacks during its last three games.

bills the week 12 play against chiefs

I'll also take 6.5 points with Buffalo playing at Kansas City. The Chiefs are getting love with four straight wins and covers. Kudos to Andy Reid for holding things together. But the Chiefs aren't that good and could be down to their third-string tailback. This is important because their offense is tailback-driven given Alex Smith's passing limitations.

The Chiefs caught a lucky scheduling break. Their last four games have been against the Landry Jones-quarterbacked Steelers, the Lions in London when Detroit was still in disarray, against the Broncos when Peyton Manning was playing hurt and at his most ineffective and last week against a messed-up, injury-racked Chargers squad.