The end of Vince Young's season in Tennessee could mean a nice payday for props bettors when Rusty Smith gets his first career NFL start this weekend.
The props for Smith at [custom:bodog-link] could be harder to figure out than you might think. You've got an inexperienced QB making his first-ever start and second-ever appearance in an NFL game, but he gets to do it against the team with the worst pass defense in the league - the Houston Texans.
After crunching the numbers and the data, surprisingly we'll give the edge to the lame Texans' defense here. The Texans' pass defense may be horrendous, but the Titans' pass attack wasn't very lethal even with Vince Young at the helm. Heading into Week 12 the Titans are ranked second last in passing yards in the NFL. The only team with fewer passing yards is the Panthers, and they own the worst offense in the entire league.
At [custom:bodog-link] the Smith props available for this weekend include passing yards and passing percentage. For passing yards the total was set at 200.5, with the UNDER favored at -130. Last week, after relieving an injured Young, Smith completed 3 of 9 passes for 62 yards, and most of those yards came on one pass that went for 52 yards. On the season the Titans have averaged only 195.5 yards passing per game. With Smith getting the start this week we'd expect Tennessee to lean heavily on the run and Chris Johnson, so we'll take the UNDER.
For the pass percentage prop at [custom:bodog-link] the total was set at 55%, with both the OVER and the UNDER listed at -115. Pass percentage can be a tricky thing to figure out even with well-known quarterbacks, and it's even tougher with someone like Smith who has no real NFL stats. Instead, we'll look at the Texans' season numbers. Opponents are completing 67.5% of their passes against Houston this season. If Smith can't hit at least 55% against that defense then there's something really wrong. We'll take the OVER and hope Houston continues to play pathetic pass defense.
Staying in Tennessee, you can also cash in on whatever happens to be the fallout from the Vince Young and Jeff Fisher situation. Over at [custom:bodog-link] you can wager on who will be left standing in Tennessee between Young and Fisher. The favorite is Fisher staying only at even money, but you can also get Young staying only at +200, both of them back next year at +350, or both of them gone next year at +400. There's a rumor that Tennessee may be favoring keeping Young, which could cause Fisher to jump ship - so getting Young only at +200 could be a good value.
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Odds Shark Staff Thu, May 12, 1:37pm