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NFL Week 16 Betting Primer

It’s that lovely time of year where those of us who are last-second shoppers get that sudden urge to punch other random last-second shoppers directly in the face. Well, that’s my experience anyways. It truly is the ugly side of Christmas, but the truth is, the only person who deserves a punch in the face is the bookie — and that doesn’t just apply to the Christmas holidays, it’s a year-round thing.

Violence is not the answer, but one thing that can save you a bit of grief this time of year is a super simple betting tip that should help maximize your time. It’s a rather simple approach of simply betting on really good teams and fading the really bad teams.

For example, the Patriots are regarded as the best team in the league (if you disagree, just look at the Super Bowl futures), while the Browns are the worst team in the league. Had you bet on the Patriots in each of their games this season, and bet against the Browns in each of their games, your record would be 20-8 ATS, good enough for a covering rate of 71.4 percent. 

This extends to the rest of the league too. The first-place teams have a combined record of 68-44 ATS (60.7 percent) with the Steelers being the only first-place team with a sub-.500 spread record. The last-place teams, meanwhile, are a combined 45-63-4 ATS (41.6 percent).

So, if you’re short on time and the schedule has a few top-tier teams taking on bottom-feeders, pull the trigger on the better team and you’re likely to come out on top more often than not. It just so has it we have a few first-place vs last-place games this week with the Panthers vs the Buccaneers and Jaguars vs 49ers. I know which direction my money is going in.

MERRY CHRISTMAS AND KEEP CHASING THAT PAPER! AND FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER! AND DON’T PUNCH ANYONE IN THE FACE OVER THE HOLIDAYS!

    Bills at Patriots
    • The Bills are 3-25 SU in their last 28 games against the Patriots. Their average losing margin in the 25 losses is 16.48 points.
    • The Patriots are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games.
    • The total has gone OVER in 12 of the Patriots' last 15 games at home after consecutive road games.
    • The Bills lead the league in rushing yards per game over their last three games (175.3). The Patriots have allowed 148.7 rushing yards per game over their last three games.
    • The visiting team is 6-1 SU and 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven games in this matchup.
    • The Patriots are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a double-digit home favorite.
    • The total has gone UNDER in three of the Bills' last four games against the Patriots. The average combined score in those games was 35.25.
    • The Patriots are 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games in the early afternoon.
    • The Patriots are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as favorite.
    • The Bills are 2-6 SU and ATS in their last eight games vs divisional opponents.
    • The Bills are 2-13 SU in their last 15 games after consecutive wins.
    Falcons at Saints
    • Over their last three games, the Saints rank third in net yards per play. The Falcons rank 21st over that span.
    • The favored team is 2-5 SU in the last seven games in this matchup.
    • The favored team is 1-7 ATS in the last eight games in this matchup.
    • The Saints are 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as favorite.
    • The Saints are 8-0 SU in their last eight games in the early afternoon.
    • The total has gone OVER in five of the Saints' last six divisional home games.
    • The Falcons are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs divisional opponents.
    • The Falcons are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as underdog.
    • The Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after consecutive ATS losses.
    • The total has gone OVER in 11 of the Falcons' last 15 games after a win.
    • The Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games on the road against teams with winning records.
    Broncos at Redskins
    • The Broncos are 1-8 SU and ATS in their last nine games on the road.
    • The Broncos are 1-3 ATS in their last four games against the Redskins.
    • The total has gone OVER in the Broncos' last three games against the Redskins.
    • The favored team is 5-2 SU in the last seven games in this matchup.
    • The Redskins are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games after a win.
    • The Broncos are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games against NFC East teams.
    • The Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four games in the early afternoon.
    • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Redskins' last 10 games against AFC West teams.
    • The Redskins are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games after an ATS win.
    • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Broncos' last eight games in December.
    • The Broncos are 2-8 SU and ATS in their last 10 games.
    • The Broncos are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after consecutive wins.
    Browns at Bears
    • The Browns are 0-19 SU in their last 19 road games with an average losing margin of 13 points.
    • The Browns are 0-15 SU in their last 15 games.
    • The Browns are 1-4 SU in their last five games against the Bears.
    • The Browns are 1-3 ATS in their last four games against the Bears.
    • The Bears are 0-7 SU and ATS in their last seven games as favorite.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 14 of the Browns' last 16 games in December.
    • The Browns are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games in the early afternoon.
    Buccaneers at Panthers
    • The Buccaneers are allowing a league-worst 30.3 points per game on the road.
    • The Panthers are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven games.
    • The Buccaneers are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games on the road in December.
    • The Buccaneers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a loss.
    • The Buccaneers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games on the road.
    • The Buccaneers are 2-7 SU in their last nine games against the Panthers.
    • The Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Panthers.
    • The total has gone UNDER in the Buccaneers' last three games against the Panthers.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Panthers' last 14 divisional home games.
    • The Panthers are 19-5 SU in their last 24 games in December.
    Chargers at Jets
    • The Chargers rank seventh in net yards per play over their last three games. The Jets rank 31st over that span.
    • The total has gone OVER in six of the Jets' last eight games. The average combined score in those games was 48.5.
    • The Jets are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as underdog.
    • The Jets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games at home.
    • The Jets are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games at home in December.
    • The Jets are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games against AFC West teams.
    • The Jets are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in their last six games after consecutive losses.
    • The Chargers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.
    • The Chargers are 3-0 ATS in their last three games after a loss.
    • The Chargers are 1-4 SU in their last five games in the early afternoon.
    • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Chargers' last nine games. The average combined score in those games was 39.1.
    • The Chargers are 12-2-1 ATS in their last 15 games on the road after losing their most recent road game.
    Dolphins at Chiefs
    • Over their last three games, the Chiefs rank first in the NFL in net yards per play.
    • The Dolphins are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four games against the Chiefs.
    • The Chiefs are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games in Week 16.
    • The Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after a win.
    • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Chiefs' last six games. The average combined score in those games was 40.8.
    • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Dolphins' last nine games. The average combined score in those games was 49.9.
    • The Dolphins are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games in December.
    • The Dolphins are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games against AFC West teams.
    • The Dolphins are 2-6 SU in their last eight games as underdog.
    Giants at Cardinals
    • The Cardinals are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games against NFC East teams.
    • The Giants are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against NFC West teams.
    • The Giants are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after an ATS win.
    • The Giants are 29-12 SU in their last 41 games against the Cardinals.
    • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Giants' last 11 games against the Cardinals.
    • The Cardinals are 6-12 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite.
    • The Cardinals are 7-1 SU in their last eight games after a loss.
    • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Giants' last seven games in December.
    • The Giants are 2-13 SU in their last 15 games.
    Jaguars at 49ers
    • The Jaguars are allowing a league-low 14.9 points per game.
    • The Jaguars are 0-3 ATS in their last three games against the 49ers.
    • The total has gone UNDER in three of the Jaguars' last four games against the 49ers.
    • The 49ers are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games in December.
    • The Jaguars are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games against NFC West teams.
    • The total has gone OVER in the Jaguars' last nine games in the late afternoon.
    • The Jaguars are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games against the NFC.
    • The Jaguars are 9-23 SU in their last 32 games after a win.
    Lions at Bengals
    • The Lions are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Bengals.
    • The total has gone OVER in four of the Lions' last five games against the Bengals.
    • The Bengals are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games in Week 16.
    • The Bengals are 11-3 SU and 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games after consecutive losses.
    • The total has gone OVER in five of the Lions' last seven games.
    • The Lions are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games against AFC North teams.
    • The Lions are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games after consecutive wins.
    Rams at Titans
    • The Titans are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games as a home underdog.
    • The Rams are averaging 36.3 points per game over their last three games. The Titans are averaging 18 over their last three.
    • The Rams are 0-3 ATS in their last three games against the Titans.
    • The total has gone OVER in the Rams' last three games against the Titans.
    • The Titans are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games as underdog.
    • The Titans are 8-2 SU and ATS in their last 10 games after a loss.
    • The Titans are 6-19-2 ATS in their last 27 games in December.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 14 of the Rams' last 19 games in the early afternoon.
    • The Rams are 3-9 SU in their last 12 games after winning as an underdog.
    • The Rams are 7-2 SU and ATS in their last nine games.
    Seahawks at Cowboys
    • Over their last three games, Dallas ranks fifth in net yards per play. Seattle ranks 26th over that span.
    • The Seahawks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games against the Cowboys.
    • The Seahawks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on the road in December.
    • The Seahawks are 9-0 SU in their last nine games after losing as a favorite.
    • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Seahawks' last eight games against the Cowboys.
    • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Cowboys' last seven games. The average combined score in those games was 41.1.
    • The favored team is 6-2 SU in the last eight games in this matchup.
    • The Cowboys are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games after consecutive wins.
    • The Cowboys are 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games as favorite.
    • The Seahawks are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games against NFC East teams.
    • The Seahawks are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games in the late afternoon.
    • The Seahawks are 21-8 SU and 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games in December.
    Steelers at Texans
    • The total has gone OVER in nine of the last 11 Christmas Day games.
    • The Steelers are 5-20 ATS in their last 25 road games as a favorite of 7 points or more.
    • The Steelers average 7.4 fewer points per game on the road.
    • The Steelers are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four games against the Texans.
    • The Texans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in the late afternoon.
    • The Texans are 0-6 SU in their last six games as underdog.
    • The Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games.
    • The Steelers are 5-0 SU in their last five games on Monday.
    • The Texans are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games on Monday.
    Raiders at Eagles
    • The total has gone OVER in nine of the last 11 Christmas Day games.
    • The Eagles average 35 points per game at home. The Raiders average 15.7 points per game on the road.
    • The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Eagles.
    • The Raiders are 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs.
    • The total has gone UNDER in three of the Raiders' last four games against the Eagles.
    • The Eagles are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games at night.
    • The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on Monday.
    • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Eagles' last nine games in December.
    • The Eagles are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games.
    • The Raiders are 18-42 SU in their last 60 games in December.
    • The Raiders are 9-22 ATS in their last 31 games in Week 16.
    • The total has gone OVER in five of the Raiders' last six games on Monday.
    Colts at Ravens
    • The Ravens are averaging 36.3 points per game over their last three games. The Colts are averaging a league-low 10 points per game over that span.
    • The Colts are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games against the Ravens.
    • The Colts are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games against the Ravens.
    • The total has gone UNDER in the Colts' last six games against the Ravens.
    • The Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after consecutive ATS wins.
    • The Ravens are 1-8 SU in their last nine games in the late afternoon.
    • The Ravens are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games against AFC South teams.
    • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Ravens' last 10 games.
    • The Colts are 0-5 SU in their last five games as underdog.
    Vikings at Packers
    • The Vikings rank second in the NFL in net yards per play. The Packers rank 28th.
    • The Vikings are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four games against the Packers.
    • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Vikings' last six games against the Packers. The average combined score in those games was 41.3.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 16 of the Vikings' last 21 games vs divisional opponents.
    • The Vikings are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games on the road in December.
    • The Vikings are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games.
    • The Vikings are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games in December.
    • The Vikings are 6-18-1 SU in their last 25 divisional road games.
    • The Packers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games in December.
    • The Packers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games at home in December.
    • The Vikings are 2-9-1 SU in their last 12 games on the road against the Packers.
    • The Packers are 12-3 SU in their last 15 games on Saturday.
    • The Packers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games in Week 16.
    • The Vikings are 5-2 SU and ATS in their last seven games on Saturday.
    • The Vikings are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games at night.

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