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NFL Week 16 Expert Betting Odds Picks

A pair of totals and the underdog St. Louis Rams are my NFL Week 16 betting recommendations.

Let's begin with the Rams getting 13.5 points at Seattle. Yes, I realize the Seahawks are hot with five straight wins and covers. But this is a division matchup and the Seahawks are missing their top two running backs, Marshawn Lynch and Thomas Rawls.

Seattle could be in letdown mode, too, after earning a playoff spot.

St. Louis has a respectable defense and Todd Gurley, a top-five running back. The Rams' passing attack has improved with a change in offensive coordinators. Since Rob Boras replaced Frank Cignetti, the Rams have averaged 26 points and 318 yards after averaging only 10 points and 275 yards per game during the five previous games.

Seattle could be without star safety Kam Chancellor, too.

The Rams have covered five of seven meetings versus the Seahawks since Jeff Fisher became their coach.

One OVER Pick and One UNDER Pick

Here's a simple rule betting the OVER/UNDER. Go OVER when two great quarterbacks are playing and UNDER when two bad quarterbacks meet.

So my choice is Green Bay-Arizona OVER 49 with Aaron Rodgers dueling against Carson Palmer and UNDER 44 in Indianapolis-Miami now that Andrew Luck has been ruled out. That means a likely quarterback matchup of battered 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck versus disappointing Ryan Tannehill.

The Packers still are trying to find their way on offense. Yet I envision a shootout with Rodgers trying to keep up with the prolific balanced Cardinals offense that ranks first in total yards, second in points and third in passing. A plus for Green Bay is the Cardinals losing star defensive back Tyrann Mathieu for the season with a knee injury.

The Colts have scored a combined 36 points in their last three games. Hasselbeck is running on fumes and could be replaced by third-stringer Charlie Whitehurst, whose best talent is carrying a clipboard.

Miami hasn't broken the 20-point barrier in seven of its last eight games averaging 16.3 points during this span. Tannehill has the 23rd best passer rating operating an offense that has gone through two coordinators.