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NFL Week 5 OddsShark Computer Picks

Matt Ryan could be launching the ball even more than he has in the first four games of the season as he and the Falcons fly into the thin air of Denver, Colorado to take on the undefeated Broncos at Mile High Stadium in Week 5. The OddsShark Super Computer is not buying what the Falcons’ high-scoring offense has been selling so far as it’s projecting a 31.2-17.7 Broncos victory on Sunday.

Denver has scored over 30 points just once so far, against a Colts team that has allowed 31.3 points a game this season, just .3 points more than the Falcons have given up on average. The Falcons have been by far the best offense in the league as they’ve averaged the most yards per game by a wide margin. The defending Super Bowl champions have not faced a top-three offense yet, so this game offers Gary Kubiak the chance to see just how good his defense really is.

Say Goodbye to the bad guy  

The Packers and Eagles are both coming off bye weeks and the computer seems to like that. It has predicted that both teams will win and cover as chalk and is projecting scores of 25.6-15.5 for the Packers over the Giants and 24.6-17.9 for the undefeated Eagles over the 1-3 Lions.

Trends seem to agree with the computer here. Green Bay is 9-1 straight up in its last 10 home games after a bye week and is on a three-game cover streak in home games after a bye. Philly is 7-2 both straight up and against the spread in its last nine road games after a bye week and is 7-2 straight up in its last nine games against the Lions.

Jacksonville (1-3), Kansas City (2-2), New Orleans (1-3) and Seattle (3-1) will all be on byes this week so make sure to check back next week to see what kind of numbers you can expect from them.

Home is where the Chalk is

The computer expects the home chalk to rack up this week and has seven road favorites projected to cover. Those teams are Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Denver, LA and Green Bay. Of those winners, the Broncos are projected to have the widest margin of victory at 13.5 points.

The computer is predicting that the Chargers and Titans will be the only teams that cover as road dogs this week as they visit Oakland and Miami, respectively. The 1-3 Dolphins are just 1-3 against the spread this year but the 3-1 Raiders are also 3-1 against the spread so the Chargers definitely have their work cut out for them in their Week 5 matchup.

Week 5 NFL Computer Picks
ThuArizona CardinalsSan Francisco 49ers2221.5
SunNew York Jets Pittsburgh Steelers15.128.3
SunHouston TexansMinnesota Vikings12.225
SunWashington RedskinsBaltimore Ravens15.428
SunTennessee TitansMiami Dolphins21.321.5
SunChicago BearsIndianapolis Colts20.725.6
SunNew England PatriotsCleveland Browns28.416.5
SunPhiladelphia EaglesDetroit Lions24.617.9
SunAtlanta FalconsDenver Broncos17.731.2
SunBuffalo BillsLos Angeles Rams15.224
SunSan Diego ChargersOakland Raiders23.227
SunCincinnati BengalsDallas Cowboys19.426.1
MonNew York GiantsGreen Bay Packers15.525.6