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NFL Week 6 Betting Primer

Joe Osborne Published on: Oct 11, 2017 12:30 PM ET

Here’s a joke:

What did the greasy bookie say after Week 6’s NFL action?

He said, “My life is over. My family has left me and I’m broke.”

This joke can become a reality for us, but we absolutely must put our work in if we want to crush this chump. Don’t be the jackass that just goes with your gut. That puts money in the bookie’s pocket which he likely puts toward something distasteful. Use the stats and trends below to help you make smart betting decisions. Then when you win, you can put the profits toward something distasteful if you’d like... It’s really none of my business and I don’t judge others on what they do in the privacy of their homes. 

One thing to keep in mind heading into Week 6 is that underdogs are covering the spread at a rate of 55.4 percent through the first five weeks. Bettors should expect that number to get closer to 50 percent in the coming weeks. Last year, underdogs covered at a rate of 49.5 percent, so if you’re on the fence with some of these games, maybe show a little bit of love for the favorites.

Enjoy the action and KEEP CHASING THAT PAPER!

Lions at Saints
  • The Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after their bye week.
  • Drew Brees has thrown for 300 or more yards in his last seven games against the Lions.
  • The Saints are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games at home in October.
  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of the Saints' last 14 games at home. The average combined score in these games was 64.9.
  • The Saints are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games against NFC North teams.
  • The Lions beat the Saints 28-13 last season. Matthew Stafford threw for 341 yards in the game.
  • Over their last three games, the Lions rank 30th in the NFL in net yards per play.
  • The Lions are 3-0 SU in their last three games against the Saints.
  • The total has gone OVER in three of the Lions' last four games against the Saints.
  • The Saints are 18-5-2 ATS in their last 25 games at home against teams with winning records.
  • The Lions are 14-45 SU in their last 59 games as road underdogs.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Lions' last nine games on the road.
  • The Lions are 6-54 SU in their last 60 games as an underdog of 4.0 or more.
  • The Lions are 11-27 SU and 10-27-1 ATS in their last 38 games after losing as a favorite.
Packers at Vikings
  • In 18 career regular-season games vs the Vikings, Aaron Rodgers has 39 TDs and 6 INTs with a 112.1 QB rating.
  • Aaron Rodgers threw for 347 yards and four TDs in his last game against the Vikings.
  • The Vikings are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games at home against teams with winning records.
  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of the Packers' last 12 games. The average combined score in these games was 54.4.
  • The Packers are 7-1 SU in their last eight games against their division on the road.
  • Jordy Nelson had 154 receiving yards and scored two TDs in his last game against the Vikings.
  • The Packers are 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games.
  • The Packers are 22-4 SU in their last 26 games in October.
  • The Packers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after a win.
  • The Vikings are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games at home.
  • The Packers are 11-3-1 SU in their last 15 games against the Vikings.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Packers' last five games against the Vikings.
  • The Vikings are 8-2 SU and ATS in their last 10 games at home after losing their most recent home game.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 14 of the Vikings' last 18 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Vikings are 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs divisional opponents.
Patriots at Jets
  • The Patriots are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games against the Jets.
  • Over their last three games, the Jets rank third in the NFL in net yards per play. The Patriots rank 29th overall in net yards per play over the course of the season.
  • The Patriots are allowing a league-worst 323 passing yards per game.
  • The Patriots are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games against the Jets.
  • The Patriots are 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games on the road.
  • The Jets are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games at home against teams with winning records.
  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of the Patriots' last 15 games against the Jets.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Jets' last seven games in the early afternoon.
  • The Jets are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games at home against teams with winning records.
  • The Jets are 4-11 SU in their last 15 games as underdog.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Patriots' last nine games. The average combined score in these games was 56.
  • The Patriots are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as favorite.
  • The Patriots are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games in the early afternoon.
49ers at Redskins
  • Over their last three games, the Redskins rank second in the NFL in net yards per play.
  • The Redskins are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games after their bye week.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the 49ers' last three games against the Redskins.
  • The 49ers are 5-1 SU in their last six games on the road against the Redskins.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Redskins' last 12 games when hosting a West Coast team.
  • The Redskins are 11-3 SU and ATS in their last 14 games in the early afternoon.
  • The Redskins are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as home favorites.
  • The 49ers are 0-9 SU in their last nine games on the East Coast.
  • The 49ers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games on the East Coast.
  • The total has gone OVER in 18 of the Redskins' last 25 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the 49ers' last 11 games as road underdogs.
  • The 49ers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games on the road in October.
  • The 49ers are 1-12 SU in their last 13 games on the road.
Bears at Ravens
  • The Bears are 0-10 SU and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games on the road.
  • The Ravens are 28-9 SU in their last 37 games at home after losing their most recent home game.
  • The visiting team is 1-6 ATS in the last seven games in this matchup.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Bears' last five games against the Ravens.
  • The Ravens are 1-8 SU in their last nine games in October.
  • The Bears are 0-5 SU in their last five games on the road against the Ravens.
  • The Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their last six games in October.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Ravens' last eight games at home.
  • The Bears are 5-0 SU in their last five games against AFC North teams.
  • The Bears are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in the early afternoon.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Bears' last five games.
Browns at Texans
  • Over their last three games, the Texans are averaging a league-high 41.3 points per game. Over that same span, they’re allowing the third-most points per game (30.7).
  • The Browns are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three games against the Texans.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Browns' last seven games against the Texans.
  • The Texans are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games at home against teams with losing records.
  • The total has gone OVER in 12 of the Texans' last 14 games in October.
  • The Browns are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games on the road.
  • The Browns are 1-28 SU in their last 29 games as underdog.
  • The Browns are 5-22-1 ATS in their last 28 games as underdog.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Browns' last nine games on the road.
  • The Browns are 0-15 SU in their last 15 games on the road.
  • Deshaun Watson has thrown for nine TDs and one INT in his last two games.
Dolphins at Falcons
  • The Dolphins rank 31st in the NFL in net yards per play. The Falcons rank first.
  • Miami is averaging a league-worst 10.2 points per game. Over their last three games they’ve averaging just 7.3 points!
  • The Dolphins are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games against the Falcons.
  • The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after their bye week.
  • The Falcons are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games as home favorites.
  • Devonta Freeman has scored at least one TD in eight of his last nine games at home.
  • The Dolphins are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games as a double-digit underdog.
  • The visiting team is 1-6 SU in its last seven games in this matchup.
  • The Falcons are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as favorite.
  • The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after an ATS loss.
  • The total has gone OVER in 10 of the Dolphins' last 14 games in the early afternoon.
  • The Dolphins are 0-10 SU in their last 10 games on the road against teams with winning records.
Rams at Jaguars
  • The Rams are averaging the second-most points per game this season (30.4), while the Jaguars are allowing the second-fewest points per game this season (16.6).
  • The Jaguars lead the NFL with 165.2 rushing yards per game. The Rams are allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game (133.6).
  • The Rams rank third in the NFL in net yards per play.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Rams' last three games against the Jaguars.
  • The visiting team is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in its last four games in this matchup.
  • The Jaguars are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
  • The Rams are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games as underdog.
  • The Rams are 4-13 SU in their last 17 games on the road in October.
  • The Rams are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after a loss.
  • The Jaguars are 0-9 ATS in their last nine games against NFC West teams.
  • The Jaguars are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games in the late afternoon.
  • The Jaguars are 1-8 SU in their last nine games at home.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Jaguars' last eight games with a closing total of 43.5 or less.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 14 of the Rams' last 20 games on the road.
  • The Rams are 10-32 SU in their last 42 games on the East Coast.
  • The Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games in the late afternoon.
Steelers at Chiefs
  • The Chiefs are second in the NFL with 156.2 rushing yards per game. Pittsburgh is allowing the fifth-most rushing yards per game (136.6).
  • The Chiefs lead the league with 32.8 points per game.
  • The Steelers are allowing an NFL-best 139.6 passing yards per game.
  • The Steelers are 5-1 SU in their last six games against the Chiefs.
  • The Steelers are 3-1 ATS in their last four games against the Chiefs.
  • Le'Veon Bell had 170 rushing yards in his last game against the Chiefs.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Steelers' last six games against the Chiefs. The average combined score in these games was 35.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Chiefs' last 14 games at home.
  • The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 3.0 or more.
  • The Chiefs are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games in the late afternoon.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Steelers' last 12 games as an underdog.
  • The Steelers are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games after losing as a favorite.
  • The Steelers are 16-5 SU in their last 21 games after a loss.
  • The Chiefs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against AFC North teams.
  • The Chiefs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games at home after covering in their two most recent home games.
  • The Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games in the late afternoon. 
Buccaneers at Cardinals
  • The Cardinals are 0-5 ATS in their last five games. They’re the only team that hasn’t covered a spread yet this season.
  • The Cardinals are rushing for a league-worst 51.8 yards per game.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Cardinals' last 14 games at home.
  • The Cardinals are 23-8-1 SU in their last 32 games at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Buccaneers' last 10 games against the Cardinals.
  • The Buccaneers are 12-48 SU in their last 60 games on the road in October.
  • The Buccaneers are 18-45 SU in their last 63 games after a loss.
  • The Buccaneers are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games in the late afternoon.
  • The Buccaneers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games on the road after consecutive home games.
  • The Buccaneers are 5-13 SU in their last 18 games in the late afternoon.
Chargers at Raiders
  • Over their last three games, the Raiders rank last in the NFL in net yards per play.
  • The Chargers are allowing a league-high 161.2 rushing yards per game.
  • The Chargers are 19-8 SU in their last 27 games against the Raiders.
  • The Chargers are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games on the road against the Raiders.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Chargers' last 10 games on the road against the Raiders.
  • The Raiders are 0-5 ATS in their last five games at home in October.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Raiders' last four games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Raiders are 2-12 SU in their last 14 games in Week 6.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Raiders' last six games at home.
  • The Raiders are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games after consecutive ATS losses.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Chargers' last five divisional road games.
  • The Chargers are 0-7 SU and ATS in their last seven games in the late afternoon.
  • The Chargers are 1-15 SU in their last 16 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Chargers are 1-9 SU and 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • The Chargers are 4-15 SU in their last 19 games on the road.
  • The Chargers are 6-14 SU in their last 20 games on the road in October.
  • The Chargers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games against their division on the road.
  • The Chargers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games on the road after covering in their most recent road game.
Giants at Broncos
  • The Broncos are averaging the third-most rushing yards per game in the NFL with 143. The Giants are allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game (139).
  • The Broncos are allowing the fewest rushing yards per game (50.8). The Giants are rushing for the third-fewest rushing yards per game (77.8).
  • The Giants haven’t been a double-digit underdog since 2008. That was in Super Bowl XLII vs New England.
  • The Broncos are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 home games after a bye and 21-6 ATS in their last 27 after a bye overall.
  • The Giants are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in their last four games against the Broncos.
  • The Broncos are 12-5 SU in their last 17 games at night.
  • The Broncos are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games at home in October.
  • The Giants are 2-12 SU and 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games on the road against teams with winning records.
  • The Giants are 3-14 SU in their last 17 games as underdog.
  • The Giants are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against the AFC.
Colts at Titans
  • The Colts are 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against the Titans.
  • Over their last three games, the Titans are allowing a league-high 33.3 points per game, while the Colts are allowing the second-most over that span (32.3).
  • The Colts rank last in the NFL in net yards per play.
  • The Colts are 24-4 SU in their last 28 games vs the Titans.
  • The Colts are 20-5 SU in their last 25 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Colts are 13-3 SU and ATS in their last 16 games on the road against teams with losing records.
  • The total has gone OVER in three of the Colts' last four games against the Titans.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Titans' last seven games in October.
  • The Titans are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games when hosting a divisional opponent.
  • The Titans are 2-11-2 ATS in their last 15 games at home against teams with losing records.
  • The Titans are 9-23 SU in their last 32 games at home.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Colts' last nine games on the road. The average combined score in these games was 54.6.
  • The Colts are 1-6 SU in their last seven games at night.
  • The Titans are 3-9 SU and 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games at home in October.
  • The Colts are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games after a win.
  • The Titans are 6-27-2 ATS in their last 35 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Titans are 8-27-1 ATS in their last 36 games against the AFC.
  • The Titans are 2-11-2 ATS in their last 15 games at home against teams with losing records.
  • Donte Moncrief has scored at least one receiving TD in four of his last five games on the road.
Eagles at Panthers
  • The Eagles are 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on the road.
  • Cam Newton has a career 69.1 QB rating in Thursday Night Football games.
  • Over their last three games, the Eagles are allowing a league-worst 328 passing yards per game.
  • The favored team is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four games in this matchup.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Eagles' last five games against the Panthers.
  • The Panthers are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games at home against teams with winning records.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Panthers' last eight games at home after consecutive road games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 12 of the Eagles' last 15 games on the road.
  • The Eagles are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last six games on the road against teams with winning records.
  • The Panthers are 17-4 SU in their last 21 games after an ATS win.
  • The Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
  • The Panthers are 18-5 SU in their last 23 games at home.
  • The Eagles are 3-10 SU in their last 13 games on the road after covering in their most recent road game.

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