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NFL Week 6 Expert Betting Odds Picks

What is going on in Cleveland? Josh McCown is a 36-year-old journeyman quarterback and Mike Pettine is a conservative defensive coach. Yet during the last three weeks McCown has resembled Dan Fouts and Pettine has looked like Don Coryell as in "Air Coryell."

McCown has thrown 141 passes in the last three games for 1,154 yards and six touchdowns. The Browns have averaged 26.6 points during this time frame. Cleveland is playing Denver, who ranks No. 1 in total defense and is allowing less than 16 points per game.

But this is a low total at 42. I see the Broncos' struggling ground attack having their finest game matched against the Browns' second-to-last ranked run defense. An effective run game sets up Peyton Manning for play-action. So I'm going OVER this total.

Take the UNDER in Panthers vs Seahawks

I am going UNDER 41 in the Carolina-Seattle game. Both of these teams are run-oriented teams with below average talent at wide receiver. Seattle's offensive line is a mess. Russell Wilson may be the most mobile quarterback in football. Yet he's already been sacked 22 times.

The Panthers were idle last week and hope to get their best defensive player, linebacker Luke Kuechly, back this week. Kuechly has missed the last three games with a concussion.

These teams have met in the regular season each of the past three seasons. Seattle won each time. The scores were 16-12, 12-7 and 13-9 last year. That's a combined total of 23 points per game.

Texans Moneyline Pick Against Jaguars

I'm also going to take Houston on the moneyline against Jacksonville since the spread is so short. The Texans have the superior defense with J.J. Watt especially since Jacksonville's leading tackler, linebacker Paul Posluszny, isn't likely to play due to an ankle injury.

Arian Foster is healthy, DeAndre Hopkins in the best wide receiver on the field and Brian Hoyer is a quarterback upgrade on Ryan Mallet.

The Texans are helped, too, by having extra time to prepare having played last Thursday. The Jaguars didn't have guard Brandon Lindor for the first time and gave up six sacks to Tampa Bay last Sunday. Lindor could be Jacksonville's best offensive linemen. He's done for the year with a shoulder injury.