The marquee matchup in the NFL this week is a pivotal divisional one between the Broncos and Raiders, who sit tied atop the AFC West with identical 6-2 records. Denver has dominated the Raiders in recent years but this Oakland team is one on the rise and the OddsShark Super Computer is actually predicting them to pull out the straight-up 22-21 home win against the defending Super Bowl champs.
This prediction flies in the face of a bunch of trends like the Raiders’ 2-5 SU and 0-7 ATS records in their last seven home games and the Broncos’ 8-2 record against the spread in their last 10. That said, the Raiders have the fourth-most efficient offense in the NFL and have more than enough firepower to usurp the champs.
Dog Days of Autumn
It’s not expected to be a great week for underdogs. According to the computer, teams favored to win will take nine of the 13 games against the spread and just two dogs will win straight up – with no underdogs expected to be a straight-up Sportsbook on the road.
We already talked about one team – the Raiders – that the computer is predicting to pull off an upset at home, but Rams fans may also need to brace themselves for a big win at home this weekend. The Rams are a small underdog to the Panthers in Week 9 and the computer is predicting a 26-22 win for LA.
Visitors Not Welcome
It’s been a good year for home teams when talking spreads as they’ve gone 61-54-5 so far and the computer is expecting that trend to continue this week. It’s predicting home teams go 10-3 ATS as well as SU. The computer predicted an identical 10-3 ATS record for home teams in Week 8 and they actually went 7-5-1 – not too bad.
Of the teams playing within friendly territory this week, the Chiefs are expected to lead the way with a predicted 22-point win over the terrible Jacksonville Jaguars. KC has won three straight games and will be big favorites vs the 2-5 Jags, whom they should easily cover the spread against.
The NFL's whipping boys
Browns fans can start cutting eye-holes in their paper bags now as they are expected to chalk up another one in the L column this week as they take on the 6-1 Dallas Cowboys in Cleveland.
The computer isn’t even being subtle anymore as it’s predicting another lopsided score on the wrong side of the Browns’ favor. Cleveland is getting a little more respect from Sportsbooks in Week 9 than they have for a while so this seems like a good time to hammer the Cowboys’ chalk.
|Thu||Atlanta Falcons||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||29.8||22.6|
|Sun||Detroit Lions||Minnesota Vikings||12.7||29.3|
|Sun||Pittsburgh Steelers||Baltimore Ravens||17.2||26.4|
|Sun||Philadelphia Eagles||New York Giants||18.7||25.6|
|Sun||Jacksonville Jaguars||Kansas City Chiefs||12.3||34.1|
|Sun||New York Jets||Miami Dolphins||15.7||29|
|Sun||Dallas Cowboys||Cleveland Browns||35.8||16.6|
|Sun||Carolina Panthers||LA Rams||21.8||26|
|Sun||New Orleans Saints||San Francisco Giants||27.5||24.3|
|Sun||Indianapolis Colts||Green Bay Packers||18.4||31.2|
|Sun||Tennessee Titans||San Diego Chargers||22.8||24.4|
|Sun||Denver Broncos||Oakland Raiders||21||22|
|Mon||Buffalo Bills||Seattle Seahawks||16||28.5|