Two big storylines heading into Sunday’s second batch of wild-card matchups:
First, will LeSean McCoy play through his sprained ankle and, if so, how much of an impact can he make at well below 100 percent? While there’s little doubt McCoy will suit up and take the field, running, cutting and juking against one of the league’s top rush defenses is another challenge Shady may not be up for a week after sustaining the injury. Oddsmakers don’t believe so as the Jaguars were 9-point home favorites as of Saturday afternoon.
In the NFC wild-card contest, we’ll learn if the Saints (-7) can beat the Panthers for a third time this season. In the previous two meetings, Cam Newton averaged 175 passing yards with two passing touchdowns and three interceptions. Drew Brees averaged 244.5 passing yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions, while the running back committee averaged 148.5 YPG.
All prop odds courtesy of Sportsbook.
BILLS AT JAGUARS:
Tyrod Taylor Rush Yards O/U 32 ½
The Bet: OVER (-125)
With McCoy hobbled, Taylor’s mobility becomes their next best offensive weapon. He averaged 5.1 yards per rush during the regular season, but that jumped to 6.3 YPR over his past 40 attempts. Taylor called his own number six or more times in 10 of 16 games and rushed for 33 or more yards in seven of 16 this season.
Charles Clay Receiving Yards O/U 35 ½
The Bet: OVER (-125)
As has been the case for several years, Clay remains Taylor’s top target. Buffalo’s tight end averaged five receptions on nine targets for 56.3 receiving yards per game the final three weeks of the regular season.
While Jacksonville’s defense has done a nice job containing opposing tight ends, there have been coverage gaps. Titans TEs caught seven passes for 43 yards last week, 49ers’ George Kittle finished with three receptions for 42 yards and a score and Cardinals’ Ricky Seals-Jones finished with four catches, 72 yards and a touchdown.
McCoy hobbled will force Taylor to look Clay’s direction on passing downs.
Leonard Fournette Rush Yards O/U 87 ½
The Bet: OVER (-125)
ESPN dedicated an entire article as to why Fournette was drafted. The short headline was: to control playoff games.
Despite a hell of a stretch during the regular season where critics jumped off the hate wagon, only to hop back on down the stretch, few believe Blake Bortles will be the reason Jacksonville wins one or more playoff games.
According to his coach, Fournette, who was also slowed due to an ankle injury earlier this season, is good to go.
The Bills allowed opposing running backs to rack up 4.9 yards per rush attempt and 135.8 rush yards per game the last five weeks of the regular season. The Jags will control time of possession behind Fournette touching the ball 20+ times in this wild-card matchup. It’s up to Bortles to make as few mistakes as possible when it’s his turn to throw.
PANTHERS AT SAINTS:
Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards O/U 49 ½
The Bet: OVER (-125)
Kamara caught six or more passes in six of his final nine regular-season games. He averaged 62.3 receiving yards per game during that stretch. He also averaged 10.2 yards per catch this season.
Brees will feed the Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite.
Greg Olsen Receiving Yards O/U 42 ½
The Bet: UNDER (-105)
Olsen still isn’t 100 percent after missing most of the season due to a broken foot. After torching the Packers’ Swiss-cheese secondary for 116 yards on nine receptions three weeks ago, he caught only four passes (15 targets) for 37 yards the final two games combined.
Only four times during the regular season did New Orleans allow opposing tight end units (not just the primary TE) to rack up more than 42 receiving yards.
