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Nover: Natural Parlay Scenario for SB50

The battle lines have been established for Super Bowl 50: Carolina is a 4.5-point favorite and the total is resting at 45 or 45.5. This sets up a natural parlay scenario.

Denver has gone under the total in 65 percent of its games this season, while the over has cashed in 70 percent of Carolina's matchups.

The Broncos rely on their elite defense. They trust Peyton Manning to manage this matchup properly - in other words conservatively. Denver won an NFL-record 11 regular season and postseason games by seven points or fewer. Denver's defense surrendered just 18.5 points per game and ranked No. 1 in allowing the fewest yards per contest at 283.1 during the regular season.

Then in the playoffs, the Broncos held Pittsburgh and New England to a combined average of 17 points a game. So if the Broncos are to win/cover against the Panthers, it figures to be a low-scoring game and thus go under the total.

If Panthers Cover, Total Should Go Over

The Panthers have scored at least 27 points in all but one of their last 16 games. They've put up 38 or more points in five of their last seven games. Cam Newton has accounted for 50 touchdowns in the Panthers' 18 games this season. So it makes sense to believe that if the Panthers cover the spread the total will go over.

It's safe to assume the Broncos can't win a shootout against the Panthers. Newton is in his prime enjoying his finest season. The soon-to-be 40-year-old Manning is likely playing in his final game. His arm is shot. He's trusted for his considerable brainpower and big-game experience. Not for attacking vertically anymore.

If the Broncos were to fall behind by double digits to the Panthers things could get ugly on the scoreboard pushing the total over. This, after all, is the Super Bowl. Teams that fall behind must take desperate chances.

Carolina had an NFL-best 39 takeaways and a league-leading plus-14 turnover ratio. The Panthers got up 31-0 on Seattle and 34-7 on Arizona during their NFC playoff games. Carolina covered both of those games and each game sailed over the total.

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