The Numbers Say: Fade The Super Bowl Champ In First Road Game
A betting friend of mine once passed along this betting tip to me and it goes like this: Fade the Super Bowl winner in its first road game of the season.
I had forgotten about it until recently so I got our data team to look it up. Turns out there's something to it. It's a profitable system whether we go back to the start of the millenium (57%) or go back all-time (64%).
| SU | ATS | O/U | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Since 2000 | 10-6 | 7-9 | 9-7 |
| All-time | 29-21 | 12-21 | 17-16 |
What I like about it this week is the New England Patriots are laying a full touchdown in New Orleans after opening as 4-point favorites. Bettors are absolutely hammering New England here and you're getting a full field goal more than the opening number if you go with the home dog.
As always with these trends, they're about playing them over time - they're not usually a quick-hit solution to doubling your bankroll. It's also just more data to just strongly consider if you're planning on playing this game.
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