The Numbers Say: Fade The Super Bowl Champ In First Road Game

A betting friend of mine once passed along this betting tip to me and it goes like this: Fade the Super Bowl Sportsbook in its first road game of the season. 

I had forgotten about it until recently so I got our data team to look it up. Turns out there's something to it. It's a profitable system whether we go back to the start of the millenium (57%) or go back all-time (64%).  

Super Bowl Sportsbook In First Road Game
  SU ATS O/U
Since 2000 10-6 7-9 9-7
All-time 29-21 12-21 17-16

What I like about it this week is the New England Patriots are laying a full touchdown in New Orleans after Sportsbook as 4-point favorites. Bettors are absolutely hammering New England here and you're getting a full field goal more than the Sportsbook number if you go with the home dog. 

As always with these trends, they're about playing them over time - they're not usually a quick-hit solution to doubling your bankroll. It's also just more data to just strongly consider if you're planning on playing this game. 

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