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Odds on a 4-0 Patriots Start

The Jimmy Garoppolo era couldn’t have started much better with the Patriots picking up a win in Arizona. They were as high as 9.5-point underdogs at some books and the game will likely be their biggest challenge during Tom Brady’s four-game suspension.

With their next three games coming at home vs the Dolphins, Texans and Bills, online sportsbook Bovada has opened up odds on whether the Patriots will start the season 4-0. ‘No’ is the most likely outcome according to the book with odds of -250, while the odds of a perfect 4-0 start are +170.

Starting 2-0 shouldn’t be much of an issue as the Patriots are 16-4 in their last 20 home games against the Dolphins. They’ve hosted the Texans three times, picking up wins and covering the spread each time with the last meeting between the two in New England occurring in 2013. They’ve also completely owned the Bills, winning 14 of their last 15 home games against them.

Miami, Houston and Buffalo combined to go 10-14 on the road last season and the Fins and Bills both picked up a road loss in their first game this season. Also of note — the Patriots host the Texans for Thursday Night Football next week and have won three straight Thursday nighters.

Taking Garoppolo's Week 1 performance, recent records and historic trends into consideration, +170 to start 4-0 looks like a steal... or so I thought.

We reached out to PredictionMachine.com to run their algorithm to determine the chances of a 4-0 Patriots start and the results weren't favorable.  Prediction Machine gives New England a 19.22% chance of being perfect through four games and notes the Texans game is much closer to a coin flip than it's being made out to be.

Manager of Prediction Machine, Rob Pizzola, provided the following analysis: "The issue with the Patriots is that they are extremely hard to value right now. They did win at Arizona last week, but let’s not forget that the market moved from Cardinals -6 to Cardinals -9 in that game, which was one of the biggest line moves of the week. New England also had a negative yards per play differential in that game, which indicates that they were actually lucky to pull out the win (they also needed a missed FG as time expired to pull it out). All in all, while the national media is praising the Patriots right now, we still see them as a team with many flaws.

With Garoppolo under center, we ranked the Patriots as the 19th-most efficient team on offense. The loss of LT Sebastian Vollmer to a hip injury is a big blow, and other injuries to Nate Solder and Jonathan Cooper (who are both listed as questionable this week) are also going to be an issue in the next two weeks against two really strong pass rushes (Miami and Houston). Defensively, DE Rob Ninkovich is set to miss the next three games as he serves his four-game suspension, and LB Dont’a Hightower is also dealing with a knee injury.

The Patriots are being offered at +170 to start the season 4-0, and we would need odds of +420 or better to play `yes`. In fact, we would argue that there is significant value in playing `no` at -250."

So, I guess this is a case of man vs machine. Which side are you on?

Will the patriots start the season 4-0?

Odds as of September 14 at Bovada

  • YES +170
  • NO -250