2024 NFL Draft Odds: Where Will JJ McCarthy Be Picked?

It's time for the 2024 NFL selection show, which means it's also time to break down some NFL Draft odds.

Nick Holz has an updated 2024 mock draft ahead of the opening round, but on this page, I'll break down the different specific draft odds and markets available for the 2024 NFL Draft. I've compiled all the draft props and handicapped some of my best picks:

2024 NFL Draft Odds: First Overall Pick

Odds as of April 23rd, 2024

Williams Clear Favorite to go first overall in the 2024 NFL Draft

The NFL draft odds are pretty clear, USC QB Caleb Williams is a lock to go first overall. The Chicago Bears, who own the top pick, have paved the way for the 2023 Heisman winner to become their new franchise quarterback. Williams' spot as 1.1 was kind of up in the air (his odds were about -1000 at the start of the offseason) but after Chicago traded Justin Fields to the Steelers we knew for sure.

After his 2023 showcase, Williams did have a 'down' year in 2024, where he saw the interception rate tick up and failed to lead USC to the College Football Playoff once again. But those minor flaws, if you even want to call them that, will not prevent Williams from being the first name called on draft day. With the talent GM Ryan Poles has now put in place around Williams in Chicago, he's a potential franchise quarterback who can carry a team to the Super Bowl in a few years — there's no doubt in my mind.

2024 NFL Draft Odds: Second Overall Pick

This slot is where we've seen most of the movement ahead of the draft, as LSU QB Jayden Daniels has skyrocketed up to 2nd-overall favorite. It's a tough choice here between the big potential of Daniels and the high floor and safe play of Drake Maye, but the current odds seem to think the LSU man is the pick.

I might sprinkle on Maye if the odds get any longer, but given where the odds are right now, I'd bet that Daniels will go second. After a monster season with the Tigers this year, Daniels locked himself as one of the best QB prospects in this draft with a great arm and dangerous running skills.

2024 NFL Draft Odds: 3rd Overall Pick

The safe pick here is for the Patriots to take Maye if he falls to third. So, for that reason, I think there's some potential guaranteed betting profit here.

I busted out the handy hedge calculator to figure out that we should put around one-third of a unit on Maye to go second overall (at around +370) and then a full unit wager on him to go third at these current odds.

Given where the odds currently sit, you're guaranteed to see profit as long as the UNC QB is a top-three pick.

2024 NFL Draft Odds: J.J. McCarthy Odds

J.J. McCarthy had himself quite the final year at Michigan, playing to a near-Heisman caliber, getting himself in the top-10 pick conversation, and winning a National Championship. After that great season, the hype on McCarthy is pretty high entering the draft.

The Vikings seem like the most obvious place to land JJ, as they traded back into the first round and now own the 11th and 23rd picks, which many people think they'll use to draft or trade up for a QB (as these odds suggest).

But lately, we've heard a lot of buzz around him going third to New England. NFL Draft analyst Tony Pauline recently reported that Pats exec Eliot Wolf is "pushing hard" for McCarthy, seeing the upside of the Michigan product at QB. I get the Mac Jones comps and fear of missing out on a Maye/Daniels, but I believe the buzz. If you're going to give me big plus money on JJ to go to the Pats, I'll take it for now.

2024 NFL Draft Odds: Michael Penix Jr.

The Seahawks just traded for Sam Howell to pair with Geno Smith in the QB room, but I don't think they're content with the quarterback situation. Picking in the middle of this first round gives them the perfect opportunity to snag my favorite player in the draft, Michael Penix Jr.

2024 NFL Draft Odds: 1st Non-QB Selected

After the QBs go at the top of the draft, things start to get interesting. WR Marvin Harrison Jr. has long been expected to be the top non-QB selected after racking up massive seasons for Ohio State, but questions are starting to pop up about if he's even the top receiver in the class.

The Cardinals pick fourth, which makes them a natural home for Harrison. But in most of the mock draft projecting I'm doing right now, I have the Cards trading back. Teams like the Broncos, Raiders, and Vikings could take a QB in this draft, and move up to fourth to get their guy. If even one of those teams moves up with the Cardinals, Harrison Jr. could fall.

With questions popping up about if Harrison Jr. can separate and make defenders miss in the open field, I'm going to take the value on this board. I like Nabers at +300 and Alt at +1000 as sprinkles on the top non-QB taken this year.

Marvin Harrison Jr. has a worrisome college production profile.

Not many successful NFL WRs with a high contested target rate and low missed tackle forced rate.

Justin Jefferson showing up in 2018 before his college breakout is interesting.

Something to keep in mind for MHJ. pic.twitter.com/Kj4yiSthWq

— Gridiron Grading (@GridironGrading) February 8, 2024

2024 NFL Draft Odds: First Defensive Player Taken

For most of the last college season, Laiatu Latu was discussed and mocked as the top player in this defensive class. But, in the last few weeks, the UCLA pass-rusher has fallen down the boards and is now seen as a mid-to-late-first-round pick by some.

With Latu falling, I think the odds have this one right. Dallas Turner seems like a natural fit to go to the Falcons at the eighth pick, adding a dynamic edge to finish off their great offseason. At -200, the odds value is still there to project Turner at eight, I think.

2024 NFL Draft Odds: 1st RB Selected

This is a pretty weak running back class, so I could see this first RB pick not happening until the late second or early third round.

I've been banging the drum for Brooks to be the top running back when he was like a +300 underdog in this market. The Texas runner was great in his 11 games for the Longhorns last year, racking up 11 touchdowns on 6.1. yards per carry.

However, the oddsmakers have adjusted in the last few weeks and now have him as the clear favorite. I'm staying away from these odds, now.

Previous NFL First Overall NFL Draft Picks

First Round Position Over/Unders

I do think Penix or Bo Nix (maybe both) slide into the first round. But, this is a pretty clear under for me at the current line values.

Previous NFL First Overall NFL Draft Picks

Since 2001, 17 of the 23 players drafted first were quarterbacks. WR Keyshawn Johnson (1996) was the last player drafted No. 1 overall who wasn't either a QB or a lineman.
 
In the past 10 drafts, there were six QBs, three DL, and one OL selected first.