2024 NFL Passing Leader odds have been released, with Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud the new favorite. NFL defenses are doing all they can to limit downfield passing games, resulting in Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa leading the league with 4,624 yards last season, the lowest yardage total since Drew Brees in 2006.
Let's dive into the latest NFL Passing Leader odds and find the best betting values on the board.
2024 NFL Passing Leader Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | +700 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +800 |
| Dak Prescott | +900 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +1000 |
| Joe Burrow | +1000 |
| Jared Goff | +1000 |
| Josh Allen | +1600 |
| Kirk Cousins | +2000 |
| Brock Purdy | +2100 |
| Jordan Love | +2100 |
| Matthew Stafford | +2100 |
| Trevor Lawrence | +2200 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +2600 |
| Sam Darnold | +2800 |
| Justin Herbert | +3000 |
| Jalen Hurts | +3200 |
| Kyler Murray | +3300 |
| Caleb Williams | +3300 |
| Baker Mayfield | +3400 |
Odds as of August 26
Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL Passing Leader Odds
Since his first year starting in the NFL in 2018, Patrick Mahomes leads all passers with 28,140 yards. Only Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff has even registered 25,000 passing yards in that same time period, and he's nearly 2,700 yards behind Mahomes. It's easy to see why sportsbooks have installed the back-to-back Super Bowl champion as the NFL passing leader favorite.
Mahomes 7.9 average yards per attempt is third on the active list of signal-callers, behind only Jimmy Garoppolo and Deshaun Watson. The next closest quarterbacks on the active list are Tua Tagovailoa, Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson (7.7).
The three-time Super Bowl champion could easily explode again this season, and run away as the NFL passing leader. Off-season additions Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy certainly point to the Chiefs reverting to their previous deep passing game this season.
However, Andy Reid isn't a play-caller who forces things. If defenses continue to play a two-high shell against this offense, Isiah Pacheco and Kansas City's running game could come to the fore. So, we'll search for value further down the odds board.
Best NFL Passing Leader Odds Bets
Dak Prescott (+900)
Never forget, Prescott threw for 4,902 yards in 2019 and was on a torrid pace in 2020 before suffering a season-ending ankle injury. He threw for 371.2 yards per game in five starts, which translates to an astronomical 6,310 yards across a 17-game season.
He also attempted a wild 222 passes in those five games, as the Dallas Cowboys realized their pitiful running game wasn't putting them in a position to win. After letting Tony Pollard walk in free agency, the Cowboys find themselves in a similar position in 2024. The carcass of Ezekiel Elliot and Rico Dowdle ain't gonna get it done.
Dak could easily exceed his previous high of 596 attempts this season, and cash your NFL passing leader bet at +900 odds. Mike McCarthy is well known to fall in love with the passing game, so I love the value on Prescott here.
Last 10 NFL Passing Leaders
| Year | Player | Yards |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Tua Tagovailoa | 4,624 |
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes | 5,250 |
| 2021 | Tom Brady | 5,316 |
| 2020 | Deshaun Watson | 4,823 |
| 2019 | Jameis Winston | 5,109 |
| 2018 | Ben Roethlisberger | 5,129 |
| 2017 | Tom Brady | 4,577 |
| 2016 | Drew Brees | 5,208 |
| 2015 | Drew Brees | 4,870 |
| 2014 | Drew Brees/Ben Roethlisberger | 4,952 |
| 2013 | Peyton Manning | 5,477 |
How To Read NFL Season-Long Player Props
A prop is a bet made on the occurrence or non-occurrence of certain events or milestones for individual players or teams. These can range from which player will have the most receiving yards or rushing yards to who will be the NFL touchdown leader in 2024. There are also specific props for games like who will score a touchdown or OVER/UNDER passing yards for a QB.
When you check out your football sportsbook of choice, you’ll see prop odds like so:
NFL Offensive Player Passing Yards:
- Patrick Mahomes +325
- Dak Prescott +400
- Justin Herbert +900
When you make a moneyline bet, you’d see favorites represented by the minus sign (-) and underdogs with the plus sign (+). In this case, because this is a prop bet, you would consider Patrick Mahomes the fave since he has the lowest odds. The rest are underdogs.
Let’s say you think Mahomes is going to record the most passing yards and you bet $100 on him. You’d get a payout of $425 – your original $100 is returned along with your winnings of $325 if you’re right. Check out our Odds Calculator to see what you’d win based on the odds and amount bet.
