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2022 NFL Passing Leader Odds: Brady Alone At Top

Brady and Mahomes are top contenders in 2022 NFL passing yard odds

Passers still rule the NFL. Even with the re-emergence of the run game, gunslingers like Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen are franchise-changing talents that organizations build teams around. Knowing how important passing is to NFL success, the best football betting sites have updated 2021-22 NFL passing leader odds for you to handicap who you think will be the top passer in the league this year.

There have been many contenders near the top of this list all season, but only one has remained constant: Tom Brady. With a week left in the season, Brady (-400) is the passing odds leader at our top football sportsbook BetUS and has been No. 1 for some time. He is joined at the top of the passing yards list by Justin Herbert (+750), Derek Carr (+1000) and Matthew Stafford (+1000). The -400 odds for Brady imply an 80.00 percent chance he will finish on top this season.

Here’s a quick breakdown of 2021-22 NFL passing leader odds with some of our favorite picks:

Who Has The Best 2021-22 NFL Passing Leader Odds?

2021-22 NFL Passing Leader Odds
Tom Brady-400
Justin Herbert+750
Matthew Stafford+1000
Derek Carr+1000
Patrick Mahomes+1800
Joe Burrow+5500

Odds as of January 5 at BetUS

One Game Left For Mahomes?

Patrick Mahomes +1800

Despite missing a game, Patrick Mahomes still posted 4,740 passing yards last year, good for second-most in all of football. With Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and Andy Reid by his side, Mahomes will always be at or near the top of this odds list, but 2021-22 has been a challenge for the Chiefs QB.

Just three full seasons into his NFL career, Mahomes has already led football in yards per game, touchdowns, yards per attempt and QBR. But in 2021-22, he led the league in interceptions for much of the year and has had to slowly climb the passing leader odds list for the past few weeks. He has 4,569 passing yards ahead of the final week, sitting roughly 400 back of the leader, Brady.

The Chiefs have the weapons and Mahomes has the talent, but can the star flash one final masterpiece performance to steal the passing crown? Probably not.

NFL Passing Leader Odds: Value Picks

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Justin Herbert (+750)

As a rookie, Justin Herbert was sixth in the NFL in passing despite missing a game. Finishing under 500 yards back of the No. 1-ranked passer (Deshaun Watson), Herbert was one big game away from leading the league last season. Once again, he sits one big game back with a single game to play.

The Chargers QB is second in passing yards with 4,631, and is 359 back of Brady. The Bucs have their division locked up but Tampa says it won’t rest starters in Week 18. If Brady finds the bench for rest at any point on Sunday, Herbert could have a shot at the passing crown, but it’s hard to see a clear path.

Matthew Stafford (+1000)

Stafford was a bit of a wild card, joining a new situation with pressure to immediately succeed with the Los Angeles Rams. However, he joined a passing attack with dominant wide receivers like Cooper Kupp, and the coaching to scheme up some big passing days.

Through 17 weeks, he sits just over 200 back of the passing yards leader, doing exactly what was expected of him when the Rams traded for him. Stafford has stumbled of late, but a day of 500-plus passing yards in Week 18 could, realistically, snatch him the crown.

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Who Will Throw For The Most Touchdowns?

2021-22 NFL Passing Touchdown Leader Odds
Tom Brady-200
Matthew StaffordEVEN
Josh Allen+1000
Patrick Mahomes+2000
Aaron Rodgers+2500
Justin Herbert+2500

Odds as of January 5 at BetUS

Can Brady Reign?

It’s a question that football fans have been asking for years. When will Tom Brady finally start to slow down? Not yet, that’s for sure.

Brady is at the top in both passing touchdown and passing yardage oddsboards in 2021-22 and finds himself once again in contention for the MVP at age 44. In 16 games, the Bucs QB has passed for 4,990 yards and thrown for 40 touchdowns, leading the NFL in both categories.

While Tampa’s run game is solid and diverse behind a great offensive line, it’s clear Bruce Arians’ attack still runs through Brady. With countless passing weapons, TB12 is setting himself up to lead quarterbacks in both major passing stats with a game to go.

How To Read NFL Season-Long Player Props

A prop is a bet made on the occurrence or non-occurrence of certain events or milestones for individual players or teams. These can range from which player will have the most receiving yards or rushing yards to who will be the NFL touchdown leader in 2021-22. There are also specific props for games like who will score a touchdown or OVER/UNDER passing yards for a QB.

When you check out your football sportsbook of choice, you’ll see prop odds like so:

NFL Offensive Player Passing Yards:

Patrick Mahomes +325

Dak Prescott +400

Tom Brady +600

Justin Herbert +900

When you make a moneyline bet, you’d see favorites represented by the minus sign (-) and underdogs with the plus sign (+). In this case, because this is a prop bet, you would consider Patrick Mahomes the fave since he has the lowest odds. The rest are underdogs.

Let’s say you think Mahomes is going to record the most passing yards and you bet $100 on him. You’d get a payout of $425 – your original $100 is returned along with your winnings of $325 if you’re right. Check out our Odds Calculator to see what you’d win based on the odds and amount bet.