The run game has made a return in recent years, but passers still rule the NFL. With Week 1 right around the corner, football will be back on our Sunday schedule and the passing stats will start to rack up.
Gunslingers like Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen are franchise-changing talents that organizations build teams around. Knowing how important passing is to NFL success, the best football betting sites have updated 2022 NFL passing leader odds for you to handicap who you think will be the top passer in the league this year.
Ahead of the upcoming NFL season, Justin Herbert (+600) is the passing odds leader at our top football sportsbook Sportsbook. He is joined at the top of the passing yards list by Tom Brady (+750), Patrick Mahomes (+800) and Matthew Stafford (+850).
Justin Herbert Leads 2022 NFL Passing Leader Odds
Odds as of September 10 at Sportsbook
Why Herbert Tops Odds To Lead NFL In Passing
Since joining the NFL, Chargers QB Justin Herbert has done nothing but dominate the passing game. He broke 4,300 yards and 30 touchdown passes in his rookie season, despite playing just 15 games, and broke the 5,000-yard mark last year.
He took a step forward in his second season, earning a Pro Bowl nod with 295 passing yards per game. With an improving offensive line and elite pass-catching weapons like Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, there’s no reason Herbert can’t break 300 passing yards per game and lead the NFL in the category this year. Even his running back, Austin Ekeler, is one of the most-used backs in the passing game.
Herbert, who says he's been anticipating this upcoming rematch, and the Chargers will open up their season against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1.
Best NFL Passing Leader Odds Bets
Tom Brady (+750)
Tom Brady led the NFL in passing by over 300 yards last year. Sure, he’ll be 45 years old this season, but getting a guy who can very clearly sling it at this +600 value is great. Eventually, age will catch up to Brady (right?), but I wouldn’t bet on it happening any time soon.
The Buccaneers have invested in protection and weapons for Brady, and built the offense around his arm. Things may change with Bruce Arians gone, but Brady still has Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Russell Gage and others to huck it down the field to.
Patrick Mahomes (+800)
Patrick Mahomes to lead the NFL in passing yards is one of my favorite quarterback prop bets this year. Why are the odds not respecting this man?
He’s passed for at least 284 yards per game in each of his first four full NFL seasons and has been a Pro Bowler every year. This Kansas City offense may change without Tyreek Hill, but it’s still built around Mahomes’ arm. He still has Mecole Hardman and Travis Kelce, and new additions like JuJu Smith-Schuster, Skyy Moore and Marquez Valdes-Scantling should help keep the passing alive in KC.
Kyler Murray (+2800)
Three years into his NFL career, Murray has been solid, but most of the highlights are for what he’s doing with his legs. Lost in his scrambling proficiency is the 20 yard per game improvement he made last year in the air. Passing for 232.6 yards per game in 2019, Murray jumped to 248.2 in his second season and then 270.5 in 2021. Another jump this year and Murray will be in the top tier of NFL passers.
DeAndre Hopkins is suspended to start the year, but Murray still has the passing weapons to lead the NFL in this yardage category. Marquise Brown is an elite down-field weapon, A.J. Green is solid and Zach Ertz looks good in red.
How To Read NFL Season-Long Player Props
A prop is a bet made on the occurrence or non-occurrence of certain events or milestones for individual players or teams. These can range from which player will have the most receiving yards or rushing yards to who will be the NFL touchdown leader in 2022. There are also specific props for games like who will score a touchdown or OVER/UNDER passing yards for a QB.
When you check out your football sportsbook of choice, you’ll see prop odds like so:
NFL Offensive Player Passing Yards:
When you make a moneyline bet, you’d see favorites represented by the minus sign (-) and underdogs with the plus sign (+). In this case, because this is a prop bet, you would consider Patrick Mahomes the fave since he has the lowest odds. The rest are underdogs.
Let’s say you think Mahomes is going to record the most passing yards and you bet $100 on him. You’d get a payout of $425 – your original $100 is returned along with your winnings of $325 if you’re right. Check out our Odds Calculator to see what you’d win based on the odds and amount bet.