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2021 NFL Passing Leader Odds: Mahomes On Top, Brady Third

Brady and Mahomes are top contenders in 2021 NFL passing yard odds

Passers still run the NFL. Even with the re-emergence of the run game, gunslingers like Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen are franchise-changing talents that organizations build teams around. Knowing how important passing is to NFL success, the best football betting sites have produced 2021 NFL passing leader odds for you to begin handicapping who you think will be the top passer in the league this year.

Despite his first-ever September loss, Patrick Mahomes (+350) is the passing yards favorite from BetOnline Sportsbook’s odds. He’s followed on the list by Dak Prescott (+500), Tom Brady (+550), Matthew Stafford (+900) and Derek Carr (+1200). Mahomes’ odds imply a 22.22 percent chance the star Chiefs QB will finish on top this season.

Here’s a quick breakdown of 2021 NFL passing leader odds with some of our favorite picks:

Who Has The Best 2021 NFL Passing Leader Odds?

2021 NFL Passing Leader Odds
Patrick Mahomes+350
Dak Prescott+500
Tom Brady+550
Matthew Stafford+900
Derek Carr+1200
Justin Herbert+1200
Aaron Rodgers+1800
Kyler Murray+1800
Josh Allen+2000
Russell Wilson+2000
Kirk Cousins+3000
Matt Ryan+3500
Baker Mayfield+4000
Jameis Winston+4000
Joe Burrow+4000
Ryan Tannehill+4000
Sam Darnold+5000
Teddy Bridgewater+5000
Ben Roethlisbeger+6500
Mac Jones+6500

Odds as of September 20 at BetOnline Sportsbook

2021 NFL Passing Leader Odds Picks

Patrick Mahomes +350

Despite missing a game, Patrick Mahomes still posted 4,740 passing yards last year, good for second-most in all of football. With Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and Andy Reid by his side, there’s no reason for the top QB not to dominate this category if healthy.

Just three full seasons into his NFL career, Mahomes has already led football in yards per game, touchdowns, yards per attempt and QBR. Aside from injury, the only thing that could prevent him from leading the NFL in passing this season is if the Chiefs have their playoff spot clinched so early he sits a week or two out to end the year.

NFL Passing Leader Odds: Value Picks

Josh Allen +2000

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen has the recipe to lead the league in passing: a huge arm, improving accuracy, solid passing weapons and an offensive scheme entirely dedicated to the air attack. 

The Bills hardly ran the ball in important games last year and Allen finished fifth in league passing because of it. Averaging 7.9 yards per attempt, he combined quantity with efficiency last year for the first time in his career. If anyone is going to knock off Mahomes, all signs point to the Buffalo gunslinger.

Allen finds himself so low on this odds list due to a cold start to 2021, failing to complete more than 60 percent of his passes in either of his first two games and racking up just 449 passing yards through Week 2. With some easy games coming up on the schedule against the poor passing defenses of Houston, Tennessee and Jacksonville, Allen could turn his season around quick.

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Justin Herbert +1200

As a rookie, Justin Herbert was sixth in the NFL in passing despite missing a game. Finishing under 500 yards back of the No. 1-ranked passer (Deshaun Watson), Herbert was one big game away from leading the league last season.

With a rookie season under his belt, there’s no reason Herbert shouldn’t be at or near the top in passing this year, and +1200 odds provide undeniable value.

Matthew Stafford +900

Stafford is a bit of a wild card, joining a new situation with pressure to immediately succeed with the Los Angeles Rams. However, he joins a passing attack with fast wide receivers like Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp and DeSean Jackson, and the coaching to scheme up some big passing days.

In his best season in Sean McVay’s offense, Jared Goff led the league in passing attempts and broke 4,600 passing yards. It's not unreasonable to expect Stafford can do the same, if not better.

NFL Passing Leader Odds: Pick To Avoid

Tom Brady +550

Tom Brady, even at his age, was nothing but outstanding last year. He finished third in passing yards, tallied 40 passing touchdowns and led his team to a Super Bowl victory.

Despite never seeming to age, Brady is now a year older and one day, eventually, his body will fail him. Expecting the 44-year-old to near 5,000 passing yards (a mark he’d need to reach to lead the league) is a lot to ask. Despite all their passing weapons, the Buccaneers have still invested in the run game with Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones and company, and the ground attack should prevent even the best Brady season from leading the NFL in passing.

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Who Will Throw For The Most Touchdowns?

2021 NFL Passing Touchdown Leader Odds
Tom Brady+300
Patrick Mahomes+400
Russell Wilson+800
Matthew Stafford+1000
Dak Prescott+1400
Josh Allen+1400
Kyler Murray+1400
Aaron Rodgers+1500
Derek Carr+1600
Justin Herbert+2000
Jameis Winston+2200
Joe Burrow+2800
Kirk Cousins+3500
Teddy Bridgewater+3500
Baker Mayfield+4000
Lamar Jackson+4000

Odds as of September 20 at BetOnline Sportsbook

How To Read NFL Season-Long Player Props

A prop is a bet made on the occurrence or non-occurrence of certain events or milestones for individual players or teams. These can range from which player will have the most receiving yards or rushing yards to who will be the NFL touchdown leader in 2021. There are also specific props for games like who will score a touchdown or OVER/UNDER passing yards for a QB.

When you check out your football sportsbook of choice, you’ll see prop odds like so:

NFL Offensive Player Passing Yards:

Patrick Mahomes +325

Dak Prescott +400

Tom Brady +600

Justin Herbert +900

When you make a moneyline bet, you’d see favorites represented by the minus sign (-) and underdogs with the plus sign (+). In this case, because this is a prop bet, you would consider Patrick Mahomes the fave since he has the lowest odds. The rest are underdogs.

Let’s say you think Mahomes is going to record the most passing yards and you bet $100 on him. You’d get a payout of $425 – your original $100 is returned along with your winnings of $325 if you’re right. Check out our Odds Calculator to see what you’d win based on the odds and amount bet.