You may have noticed the New England Patriots are 16-point favorites this week in their divisional round matchup against the Houston Texans.
That’s a lotta points.
Actually, it’s the biggest point spread the Patriots have ever seen in a playoff game and it’s the biggest one we’ve seen in the NFL playoffs overall since 1999.
I guess oddsmakers aren’t messing around after Pats bettors put a beating on them this season. The Patriots went 13-3 against the spread and that includes covering four numbers as double-digit faves. They also beat Houston 27-0 as 1-point faves back on Sept. 22 – and that was with Jacoby Brissett making his first NFL start at QB.
With TB12 back at quarterback this week, it’s enough to send the handicap to levels the Pats have never seen in January before. Here’s a look at their 10 biggest spreads in the playoffs:
New England went 8-2 straight up but 5-5 against the spread in those games. They went just 1-3 against the spread in the ones with double-digit spreads.
This shouldn’t come as a huge surprise for bettors. The Pats may bring home the bling in the playoffs but they don’t get the green. They are just 14-16-1 against the spread in the postseason in the Tom Brady era for a disappointing cover rate of only 46.7 percent.
The Pats just don’t cover huge spreads in general. They’re 6-6 against the spread in the 12 times they’ve been favored by 15.5 points or higher under Brady, which is where this week’s number opened.
New England is 0-5 against the spread in their five biggest point spreads ever.
But this week’s number isn’t just big by Pats standards. There is only one bigger playoff spread ever according to our database. Here’s a look at the 12 biggest in the postseason going back to 1984, in which faves went 5-5-2 against the spread.
There’s one more note for Pats bettors before you make your divisional round wagers this weekend. You might be surprised to learn the Patriots are actually a huge UNDER bet in the playoffs. The OVER/UNDER is 13-18 in Tom Brady’s 31 playoff games where they averaged 26.0 points per game and Brady threw for 62 touchdowns against 28 interceptions.
This week’s total opened at 46 and early money on the UNDER bumped it down to 44.5 before long.
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