It’s easy to assume the New England Patriots are a favorite each and every week but going into Week 2 vs the Miami Dolphins, Odds Shark is monitoring a spread that we haven’t seen for the Pats since the 2011 regular season. In fact, it’s the biggest spread for any NFL game since 2013.
The Patriots are currently 19.5-point favorites at Sportsbook to beat the Dolphins after Sportsbook as 14.5-point faves with 64 percent of the money currently coming in on the Pats.
This is New England’s largest spread as a favorite since 2011 when it closed as 20-point chalk vs the Colts and it’s the Pats’ biggest spread as a fave for a road game in Odds Shark’s database since they were 19-point faves in 2007 vs the Ravens.
To put into perspective how large a spread this is, only three games have had spreads of 18 points or more since the start of the 2010 season:
|Dec 4, 2011||IND @ NE||24-31||W||-20.0||L||55.0||O|
|Sep 22, 2013||JAC @ SEA||17-45||W||-19.0||W||62.0||O|
|Oct 13, 2013||JAC @ DEN||19-35||W||-26.5||L||54.0||O|
Why Are the Patriots Favored By So Much?
Not my style to answer a question with a question but did you see the Patriots and Dolphins play in Week 1? They look like teams going in completely opposite directions as the Pats beat the Pittsburgh Steelers by 30 and the Dolphins lost by 49 on their home field to the Baltimore Ravens.
The Patriots offense didn’t miss a beat in Week 1 and is expected to get a huge boost with WR Antonio Brown coming to town. New England’s defense also looked incredible while limiting Pittsburgh to only three points.
Meanwhile, Miami looked like a 52-man dumpster fire and oddsmakers are kicking around the idea that the Dolphins could go 0-16 SU in 2019.
Patriots Rarely Cover Spread In Miami
The one glaring fact that seems to be glossed over is how the Patriots have fared in Miami in recent years. New England goes to Miami every season and since 2013, the Pats are 1-5 SU and ATS in six games in South Beach (popping eye emoji!).
In four games in Miami since 2016, the Patriots were favored by a touchdown or more, with only one SU and ATS win to show for it (a 35-14 win as 7.5-point faves on January 1, 2017).
Fade The Patriots With Large Spreads
I’m not willing to say that New England will go into Miami and lose outright. That would be foolish. What I am saying is that trusting the Patriots to cover this large a spread has not been a profitable endeavor.
They have been a fave of 18 points or more five times in the Brady-Belichick era and while they’ve won every game, the fact remains that they failed to cover the spread each time.
See for yourself with results from Odds Shark’s database:
Now, it’s worth noting that four of those games in which the Patriots were large faves came during their historic 2007 season when they finished 16-0 and demolished most of the league (until the Super Bowl, of course). But it still has merit when we’re referencing larger historic spreads.
Check out the Patriots-Dolphins Game Center page to track the betting odds and see how large this spread grows from now till kickoff.