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Patriots vs Dolphins Betting Pick

There are tough ways to lose football games, and the New England Patriots, of all people, came up with a new one Sunday in New Jersey.

But the Pats are still in first place in AFC East, heading into another divisional battle this Sunday at home against 3-3 Miami (1 pm ET, CBS).

New England forced overtime Sunday against the Jets with a late field goal, then got called for a 15-yard penalty, new to the books, on a missed New York field goal. Four plays later Nick Folk made a kick from 14 yards closer, handing the Pats their second defeat of the season.

As for the Dolphins, they've turned a 3-0 start into 3-3, losing their third straight game Sunday at home to Buffalo 23-21. Now they go up against a team they've lost to six times in a row.

In the early betting New England, only 3-4 ATS on the season, was chalked at -4.5 points over Miami, but that number quickly rose to -7 at many NFL betting outlets.

They battle the Dolphins, currently with a 3-3 mark (3-3 ATS). The over under records, important for totals bettors, are 3-4 for the Patriots and 5-1 for the Dolphins.

View Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Odds and Stats.

Those siding with the visitors in this matchup saw the Dolphins listed as 4.5-point underdogs at shops such as Bovada. Meanwhile, the over under line for the matchup was at 45.5 over at Sportsbook.ag.

It's a betting matchup between the No. 7-rated Patriots and the No. 19-ranked Dolphins, according to the NFL Power Rankings here at Odds Shark. Predictive-scoring models run on this game indicate a potential 23-19 result in favor of the Patriots.

The Dolphins were a 23-21 loser in their most recent outing at home against the Bills. They failed to cover the 5.5-point spread as favorites, while the total score (44) made winners of OVER bettors. New England lost its last outing 30-27 against New York on Sunday, getting a 114-yard receiving performance from Rob Gronkowski in a losing cause at MetLife Stadium.

How They Match Up:
The game also pits New England's No. 20-ranked offense, averaging 21.71 PPG, against a Dolphins defense that ranks No. 20 this week at 23.33 PPG. The Patriots aerial game is averaging 225 yards per game, less than the Dolphins secondary allows through the air, 269.33 YPG per game.

In comparing defenses, the Dolphins own the league's No. 4-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 82.67 yards per game when on the road. New England, on the other hand, rates No. 15 this week in generating rushing yards at home.

A few Dolphins at Patriots trends to consider:
Miami is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games
Miami is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Miami is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Miami's last 19 games on the road
New England is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England's last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 6 games at home

Next up:
Miami at Cincinnati, Thursday, October 31st
New England at Pittsburgh, Sunday, November 3rd