Everyone has been excited about the 10-2 Rams all season and from that excitement, a lot of money has come in on them. But a closer inspection reveals that the defending NFC West champions have been dreadful for bettors over their past 10 games, going 2-6-2 against the spread. LA opens as a 9-point favorite against the visiting Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday Night Football.
- The total has gone OVER in four of the Rams’ last five games at home (avg. combined score: 71.0).
- The Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last six games on the road.
- The Rams are 6-0 SU in their last six games at home (avg. winning margin: 10.5).
Let’s Examine the Total
The total opened at 52 and is creeping up toward 54 as of Tuesday. Incidentally, only once has a Philadelphia game gone beyond 54 points this season, a 48-7 loss to New Orleans. Of course, the fact that four of the Rams’ last five games have gone OVER the total with an average combined score of 71 points may trump the Eagles’ stats.
Outside of the 15-6 anomaly in Chicago on Sunday past, the Rams scored a low of 29 points and an average of 37.2 points in the six games leading up to Week 14.
Philadelphia entered last year’s game vs LA at the Coliseum as a 1-point favorite with the total set at 47 – the Eagles won 43-35 as the teams absolutely crushed the total. By the way, this is the same game where Carson Wentz’s season ended a year ago.
Line of Scrimmage Matchup
The Eagles come in with one of the strongest offensive lines in the league but they’re up against Aaron Donald and one of the top defensive lines in the NFL. In the thrilling OT loss at Dallas, the Eagles offensive line gave Carson Wentz enough time to throw for 228 yards and three touchdowns against the No. 8 pass defense of Dallas.
The Rams defense was outstanding at a frigid Soldier Field on Sunday night, forcing three interceptions, three tackles for a loss and one sack courtesy of John Franklin. Mitchell Trubisky managed just 110 yards on 16 completions.
Where Does This Game Hinge?
While the above matchup is OK for Philadelphia, I think their secondary is in trouble with a pissed-off Jared Goff on home field. Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott completely decimated the Eagles for 455 passing yards, three passing touchdowns and 142 yards on the ground. This should have Goff and Todd Gurley salivating at the line of scrimmage.
Watching the game tape of the Eagles/Cowboys game, it’s very evident that things were a little too easy for Dallas’ offense, one that is ranked No. 23 in scoring and No. 25 in passing yards.
What will the Rams’ No. 3 scoring offense and No. 5 passing and rushing offenses do to this Philadelphia defense? The Eagles have the No. 30 pass defense at an average of 277.4 yards against per game. Against a comparable high-octane New Orleans offense, they surrendered 373 passing yards and 173 more on the ground.
My Bet for This Game
Nine points is a big spread but I think the Rams will pummel the Eagles in the Sunday nighter. Sean McVay and his team were not happy with the lesson taught to them by the ravenous Bears defense in the cold Illinois night and will come out firing against an Eagles defense that is not up to the task of stopping Todd Gurley and Jared Goff.
