Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants

Thursday Night Football will kick off Week 6 in the Big Apple and both the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants will be desperate for a win. The Eagles have dropped back-to-back games for the first time since Week 15 of the 2016 season while the drama-filled Giants are 1-4 SU in five games after high expectations for a bounce-back year. Philly opened as a 3-point favorite to knock the Giants down another peg and has won seven of the last eight games in this matchup.

Eagles vs Giants Game Center

Eagles have Owned the Giants Recently

The Philadelphia Eagles may have fallen back to earth with a 2-3 SU start in 2018 and their stout defense with plenty of depth has looked like a shell of itself in defeat. The Eagles are allowing 25.3 points in their losses this season, which is cause for concern considering they only allowed 25 or more points three times in all of last year’s regular season. Philly’s pass defense got shredded for over 300 yards by the Vikings and now ranks 24th in yards allowed per game (292.4) while letting QBs like Kirk Cousins, Marcus Mariota and Ryan Fitzpatrick look like peak John Elway against them.

That being said, there are some positives to take away for the Eagles and their offense has started to progress with Carson Wentz back in the fold. The former No. 2 overall pick topped 300 yards passing for the second straight week and his mobility seems to be improving as he scrambled for 26 yards on five rushing attempts vs the Vikings. But third down is the Achilles heel for the Philly offense as it has only converted 13 of its 38 third-down attempts (34 percent) since Wentz has been back in the lineup and if it wasn’t for a boneheaded play on the final drive by Colts QB Andrew Luck in Week 3, the Eagles could be staring at a 1-4 SU record.

The Eagles rushing attack also took a massive hit this week as Jay Ajayi has been ruled out for the remainder of the season with a torn ACL. Philly will need to turn to Corey Clement and Wendell Smallwood to carry the load for the remainder of the season unless GM Howie Roseman can add another back through trade (ahem…Le’Veon Bell?).

Although the majority of the on-the-surface trends support the Eagles in this matchup (7-1 SU in last eight games vs the Giants and 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS when played at MetLife Stadium), Philadelphia’s record as a 3-point favorite on the road is a bit disturbing. The Eagles are 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games going back to the 2015 season and 0-2 SU in 2018. I’m not saying to take any of these trends to the bank but this will be the third straight road game for the Eagles as 3-point favorites and spread bettors have gotten burned in the previous two.

Lot of Talk, Not Enough Action for the Giants

When the interview from Odell Beckham Jr. came out over the weekend criticizing his quarterback and the offense, I expected this team to quit in Carolina but it shocked me to see the Giants top 30 points for the first time in 36 games. The Giants offense clearly still has a lot of work to do but it showed glimpses of what it could become when it drafted Saquon Barkley (two touchdowns in Week 5) in the 2018 draft. Eli Manning topped 300 yards for the first time this season vs the Panthers but New York went a woeful 0-for-7 on third-down conversions and was on the wrong side of a 63-yard field goal in the loss.

The offense kept them in the game vs Carolina but New York’s defense continues to come up short, which is putting them behind the 8-ball. The Giants are allowing 124.4 yards per game on the ground (ranked 27th) with 4.6 yards per carry (ranked 25th). Where the Giants may be able to stifle the Eagles offense is through the air as their pass defense has been solid through five games by only allowing 237 passing yards per game to go with six touchdowns. If the Giants can make Wentz a pocket passer, it could put them in a great position to hand the Eagles their third straight loss and allow New York’s season to stay alive.

The Giants have been dogs of 3 points in both of their home games this season and failed to cover in either of them. If Giants backers are looking for any semblance of hope, they should know that New York is 5-5 ATS in its last 10 home games as an underdog. But when taking Philly’s recent history vs the Giants into account along with the fact that New York is 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games at home, it’s hard to endorse a G-Men cover bet against anyone, let alone the defending Super Bowl champions.

OVER Bettors Love When These Teams Clash

Scoring has been generous in Thursday Night Football thus far (average combined score 51.2 points per game) and when these two divisional rivals lock horns, OVER bettors are cashing in. The total opened at 45 and the OVER has hit in five straight games between the Eagles and Giants with an average combined score of 54.6 points per game. Neither team’s defense looks particularly scary at this point and if the Giants offense is back in rhythm, this one could top 60 on the scoreboard.

My Pick is…

To take the OVER 44 points. The Eagles have shown that even in their struggles, they can still move the ball and put up points and will likely exploit the Giants defense with short rest on the ground. Since the Eagles secondary has been Swiss cheese this season, Eli and company should be able to find the end zone too so I like the OVER.