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The Pick 6: Thanksgiving Day Special

Welcome to a special edition of the Pick 6 where I’ve filled my dinner plate with my six favorite plays from the three-game Thanksgiving Day NFL slate.

I’m on a hot streak heading into Week 12 (8-3-1 run) so if there’s ever been a time to hop on the Pick 6 bandwagon, it’s now.

The Pick: Vikings -3 (-105)

The Stat: Publicly backed teams are 8-4 ATS since 2013.

Receiving around 60 percent of public bets, the Vikings make for an interesting play to kick off your Thanksgiving with a six-game winning streak and five-game cover streak on the line.

Also, they’ve gone 15-5 against the spread in their last 20 games as favorites of zero to three points and their defense is one of the best in the NFL.

The Pick: Case Keenum to have the most passing yards on Thanksgiving (+600)

The Stat: Keenum has averaged 291 passing yards over his last 3 games.

That’s the second most of the six quarterbacks in action on Thanksgiving but this is more or less a value play. Looking at matchups, Stafford and Dak can basically be crossed off the list, leaving just Rivers and Cousins in front of Case.

I’m expecting a low-scoring grinder in Washington so Kirk could have an off day and with no Sean Lee for Dallas, the Chargers should rely more heavily on Melvin Gordon and the running game.

Keenum has developed some serious chemistry with his talented group of wideouts and he’s gotten better every week. +600 is an asinine number for this prop and I want to burn Bovada for setting it so high.

The Pick: Chargers -1 (-115)

The Stat: The Cowboys have lost by an average of 24 points without Ezekiel Elliott and Tyron Smith in the lineup this season.

Smith is reportedly probable to go for this one now but I’m not convinced he’s totally healthy and even if he is, the Chargers are the better team right now.

Phil and the boys slapped the Bills last week and are coming into this Turkey Day matchup with a ton of momentum. The Cowboys, on the other hand, are a mess right now with injuries, suspensions and off-field drama plaguing their performance.

Dak has proven the last two games that a lot of his success as a rookie was brought on by the dominance of Ezekiel Elliott. Without Zeke lined up behind him in the backfield, Prescott has been awful and he’ll be facing a premier pass rushing unit on Thursday.

Chargers win by two scores.

The Pick: Chargers OVER 2.5 sacks (-120)

The Stat: The Chargers have averaged 3 sacks per game this season and the Cowboys have given up 12 total the last 2 weeks.

This one is super self-explanatory. The Cowboys’ offensive line has been Swiss cheese of late and the Chargers have the third-most sacks in the NFL. Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram are nightmares.

The Pick: Redskins -7.5 (-105)

The Stat: Favorites of 7 points or more are 11-3 ATS on Thanksgiving the last 10 seasons and 29 of the last 45 Thanksgiving games have been decided by double digits.

Earlier in the week I really liked the Giants as a contrary play but I’ve changed my tune significantly after doing a little more research. Every number I’ve turned up points to the Redskins and despite their injury woes, I’m still taking them at their chalky number.

The Pick: Samaje Perine to have the most rushing yards on Thanksgiving (+300)

The Stat: Perine had 117 yards as the Redskins’ lead back last week and the Giants give up 132.7 rushing yards per game.

Perine is the only healthy running back left in Washington after Chris Thompson suffered yet another brutal injury and he’s likely going to see the most snaps of any tailback on Thursday.

His performance last week was extremely encouraging and I’ve picked up the rookie in every fantasy league I’m in where he was available. The Giants haven’t stopped any running back yet this season and I’m assuming that playing on a short week won’t help them accomplish that against the Redskins.

For more info, picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news, check out our new podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes, or check us out at OddsShark.libsyn.com.