The Pick 6: Week 11

Week 10 was one of my best yet. I went 4-1-1 with my picks while hitting a parlay and a teaser. What a rush. All in all I profited just over $300 betting $100 per play and I’m primed for another big week of the Pick 6!

The Pick: Steelers SU and UNDER 44 (+150)

The Stat: The Steelers have a 1-8 O/U record this season, are 4-0 SU and ATS when rushing for over 100 yards as a team and are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 home games as favorites of 7 or more points.

No-brainer play for me. Pittsburgh is a great team at home and they dominate at Heinz Field as big faves. Also on an eight-game winning streak in prime-time games in which their average margin of victory is 15, the Steelers will have a ton of confidence coming into the TNF contest and that’s not an insignificant factor.

Tennessee’s 6-3 record is super inflated by wins over bad teams and playing in Steel City is no picnic. I’m predicting a 20-10 Steelers win so feel free to grab Pittsburgh on the spread if you’re not feeling my parlay.

The Pick: Ravens -2 (-110)

The Stat: Since 2007, road favorites are 43-21-2 ATS when coming off a bye week.

I hate the Ravens but I love this stat. Blindly following a trend is rarely a good idea but this one has been solid gold over a pretty good sample size. Also, have you seen Brett Hundley play quarterback? Yikes.

The Pick: 7-point Teaser Saints -0.5, Jaguars -0.5, Chiefs -3.5 (+120)

The Stat: Favorites of 7 or more points are 9-4 ATS since Week 8 but if they’d been teased 9 points, they would’ve gone 11-2 ATS.

These are plays I like on their own but when I get 7 extra points on each, I become infatuated. Not to mention I’m also on a heat streak with my teasers and parlays.

The Pick: Patriots -6.5 (-110)

The Stat: Favorites are 35-28-2 ATS on neutral fields since 1984.

I like that stat but I also just really like this Pats team – from a betting perspective. Brady and company are rounding into form in a scary way and the defense has improved DRASTICALLY.

The Raiders, on the other hand, cannot play defense. That might be a problem against the best offense in the NFL.

New England wins the annual Mexico game by at least two touchdowns and improves to 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS.

The Pick: The Cowboys to allow more than 2.5 sacks (-140)

The Stat: Dallas allowed six sacks last week to a player who has one move.

Dak Prescott is in serious trouble on Sunday if Tyron Smith isn’t back in the lineup and it’s looking like he won’t be. The Eagles have a better pass rush than the Falcons and we all know what happened last week when Chaz Green tried his best to fill in at left tackle – it’s the most important position in the NFL for a reason.

The Pick: Eagles -3.5 (-105)

The Stat: The Cowboys will most likely be without their three most important players.

No Zeke, Sean Lee or Tyron Smith? That’s all I really need to know to take the Eagles in this one.

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