The Pick 6: Week 13

Week 12 was certainly not our strongest outing after a couple of bad beats went against us but thanks to a massive Turkey Day we were still up money for the slate.

With just five weeks left until playoffs, the time to bet on football is quickly running out and it won’t be long until we’re back in the dog days of summer. Let’s get some more winners while the getting is still there to be got.

The Pick: Colts +9.5 (-110)

The Stat: The Jaguars are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as favorites of 9.5 or more points.

There’s a reason the Jags haven’t been favorites of 9.5 or more since 2009. This is too many points and seems like an overreaction to Jacksonville’s success and to the rate at which big favorites have been covering the spread of late.

Indy is not a very good team but they’re pesky enough to make this a tough game for a Jags side that was anything but clinical last week.

Gotta think the J-words win this by a field goal.

The Pick: Panthers +4.5 (-110)

The Stat: The Panthers are 9-1-1 ATS as a road underdog since December 2014.

I got burned badly by that review last week that helped the Panthers not only win but cover against the Jets and I’m not letting that happen again. Carolina has been pulling results out of thin air all season and the last few seasons, they’ve been one of the best road bets in the NFL – especially in December.

New Orleans is a tough team to fade in the Superdome but their new-found strengths in the running game play right into Luke Kuechly’s more than capable hands. 

The Pick: 6-point teaser Chargers -7.5, Patriots -1.5, Titans -1 (+150)

The Stat: The Patriots are 20-8-3 ATS in their last 31 games in Buffalo, the Titans beat bad teams and the Chargers are playing the Browns.

Pittsburgh cost us a second straight teaser hit last week and considering how well favorites performed, I feel really hard done by. Onward and upward and on to Week 13 where I have another teaser play I like a lot.

Let’s hope the Browns don’t get their first win of the season against the Bolts again.

The Pick: Giants-Raiders UNDER 41.5 (-110)

The Stat: Geno Smith has a career 72.3 passer rating and the Giants averaged 15.6 points per game with Eli Manning as their starter.

This isn’t going to be a game you’ll want to watch if you value the integrity of your eyeballs. The Giants are second only to the Browns in the conversation for who has the worst offense and there’s a very slim chance Geno Smith is the messiah they’ve been looking for.

With the Raiders missing their best two best receivers, I’m not sure how either team breaks 20 points. Take the UNDER and get on with your life.

The Pick: Vikings SU (+125)

The Stat: The Vikings are 7-0 SU in their last 7 games with an average margin of victory of 10.4.

In what could easily be the game of the week, I like the Vikings. Atlanta has been one of the most disappointing teams all season and the Vikings just keep surprising me with what they’re capable of.

Minny should do a good job keeping the Falcons passing attack cooped up and if the Vikes don’t get jobbed by the refs again, they’ll have every chance to win this game.

The Pick: Eagles -6 (EVEN)

The Stat: The Eagles are the best bet in the NFL.

Philly is too hot not to take right now and while it’s wild to see the Eagles as 5.5-point favorites in Seattle, the line makes sense. An utter lack of an offensive line really handicaps what the Hawks can do on Sunday night with a potent pass rush on the other side of the ball and Carson Wentz is out to prove he’s the best thing to come out of the City of Brotherly Love since Rocky.

This column is powered by stats and trends provided by the NFL Betting Primer.

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