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The Pick 6: Week 5

Another solid week for The Pick 6. I went 4/6 with a couple of really nice hits – one on the Jets +155 that I was ruthlessly made fun of for – and I really like the Week 5 board.

Let’s once again start off with a Thursday night bet where I’m 3/4 and up a ton of money so far this season.

The Pick: Patriots vs Buccaneers OVER 54.5 (-105)

The Stat: All five games that closed with a total of 53.5 or higher this season have gone OVER.

Books set totals this high for a reason – they expect a lot of points to be scored.  That’s definitely the case for Thursday when the high-powered Patriots meet the Buccaneers on TNF, considering how bad both defenses have been through four weeks.

All four of the Patriots games have gone OVER this season and if you count preseason, it’s been 13 contests since the Pats posted an UNDER.

New England’s ball-stopping unit – that’s been terrible since the tail end of last season – is on pace to do historically horrific things and Jameis Winston is very capable of shredding secondaries. I think both he and Tom Brady have huge nights and put this OVER away within three quarters.

This play was my easiest of the entire week and it should be yours too.

The Pick: Lions -3 (+105)

The Stat: The Lions are 12-2 SU in their last 14 games as home favorites.

Detroit looks like one of the best teams in the NFL and if weren’t for a sketchy review and subsequent 10-second clock run-off, they’d be undefeated. Matt Stafford is earning that money he made in the offseason, leading an offensive unit that many thought would be mediocre this year to SU and ATS wins over the Giants, Vikings and Cardinals.

Cam might have looked good last week but who hasn’t against the Patriots? If the distractions he’s facing from some ill-advised comments don’t limit his performance on Sunday, the Lions defensive line sure will.

Detroit has the fourth-best scoring defense in the NFL and before last week, the Panthers were averaging 14.7 points per game. This seems like another easy one.

The Pick: 7-Point Teaser with Bills +10, Steelers -1.5, Rams +7, Packers +9 (+200)

I’m on a bit of a cold streak with my four-legger parlay/teaser picks so I’m not breaking this down. Just know that I’m deeply in love with every leg on this teaser and if I don’t hit it, I’ll personally apologize to everyone who follows along.

The Pick: Chargers +3.5 (-125)

The Stat: The Giants are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when hosting a West Coast team.

I love the Chargers on the points against the Giants, LOVE THEM. San Diego is not an 0-4 team and they’re going to prove it on Sunday. Their excellent pass rush is going to give Eli all he can handle and I won’t be shocked (get it?) if he coughs up a few turnovers.

Adding to my confidence, the Bolts cut Korean kicker Younghoe Koo this week after a horrendous introduction to the NFL and they’ll bring Nick Novak back into the fold.

I’m guessing this is a close game and with a legitimate leg now taking the placekicks for LA, I’ll happily back the Chargers.

The Pick: Ravens vs Raiders UNDER 39 (-110)

The Stat: The Raiders averaged 10 points per game in their last 2 games without Derek Carr as their quarterback.

EJ Manuel and Joe Flacco will start at quarterback for their respective teams this weekend – yuck. Baltimore’s offense has been a disaster all season and Oakland was having problems even before Carr went down.

This game is going to suck. Take the UNDER and for the sake of your eyes, don’t watch it.

The Pick: Vikings -3 (-125)

The Stat: Rookie quarterbacks are 6-19 SU in home debuts the last 5 seasons.

Mitch Trubisky has gotten the call to take the offensive reins for the Bears after Mike Glennon proved incredibly ineffective but it’s very unlikely that he sees success right off the bat. His receiving corps is atrocious and he’s going up against one of the best pass rushes in the NFL under the bright lights of Monday Night Football in his first big-league start.

That’s a lot of factors going against the 23-year-old.  

Vikings -3 is no gift with Keenum still on the Case but he’s looked good enough the past three weeks (94.4 passer rating) to make me think he can outduel an unproven rook.​

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